The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields
The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1409606112
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发表时间：
2015-03-03
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Lobell, David B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Moore, Frances C.;Lobell, David B.
自1990年代初以来，欧洲经历了一些作物产量的停滞，以及在生长季期间统计上显着的变暖。尽管有人认为这两者之间存在因果关系，但此前没有任何研究正式将长期产量趋势归因于气候变化。在这里，我们提出了两个基于气候变化影响和适应的独特空间模式的统计检验，并探索了它们在一系列参数值下的能力。我们表明，在许多情况下，识别气候变化影响的统计能力很高，但识别适应的能力几乎总是很低。将这些测试应用于欧洲农业，我们发现有证据表明，自1989年以来的长期气温和降水趋势使整个欧洲大陆的小麦和大麦产量分别减少了2.5%和3.8%，玉米和甜菜产量略有增加。这些平均值掩盖了整个非洲大陆的巨大异质性，地中海周围地区对大多数作物都产生了严重的不利影响。这一结果意味着，气候趋势可以解释欧洲小麦和大麦产量停滞的10%左右，其余原因可能包括农业和环境政策的变化。
Europe has experienced a stagnation of some crop yields since the early 1990s as well as statistically significant warming during the growing season. Although it has been argued that these two are causally connected, no previous studies have formally attributed long-term yield trends to a changing climate. Here, we present two statistical tests based on the distinctive spatial pattern of climate change impacts and adaptation, and explore their power under a range of parameter values. We show that statistical power for the identification of climate change impacts is high in many settings, but that power for identifying adaptation is almost always low. Applying these tests to European agriculture, we find evidence that long-term temperature and precipitation trends since 1989 have reduced continent-wide wheat and barley yields by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively, and have slightly increased maize and sugar beet yields. These averages disguise large heterogeneity across the continent, with regions around the Mediterranean experiencing significant adverse impacts on most crops. This result means that climate trends can account for similar to 10% of the stagnation in European wheat and barley yields, with likely explanations for the remainder including changes in agriculture and environmental policies.