Earthquakes as chaos
Earthquakes as chaos
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DOI：
10.1038/348197a0
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发表时间：
1990-11
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
C. Scholz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Scholz
一段时间以来，地震危险性分析一直是基于这样一种假设，即断层被分解成离散的部分，这些部分在“特征性”地震中独立地失效。然后，可以根据这些片段的识别和估计它们的重现时间来进行长期预测。越来越明显的是，这种描述过于简单。一个问题是，这些片段并不完全;虽然不可能用放射性碳年代来证明，但有理由假设华莱士溪事件是像1857年那样的耦合事件，其中两个地点都破裂了。如果耦合事件是每个Pallett Creek序列中的最后一个事件，那么在细节上，行为与Huang和Turcotte的模型类似，其中Wallace Creek对应于较强的块体，Pallett Creek对应于较弱的块体。在每一个耦合事件之后，有90-
EARTHQUAKE hazard analysis has for some time been based on the supposition that faults are broken into discrete segments that independently fail in'characteristic'earthquakes. Long-range predictions can then be made based on the identification of these segments and estimating their recurrence times. It is becoming increasingly obvious that this description is far too simple. One problem is that the segments are not entirely; Although impossible to prove with radiocarbon dates, it is reasonable to suppose that the Wallace Creek events are coupled events like that of 1857, in which both sites were ruptured. If the coupled events were the last in each Pallett Creek sequence, then in detail the behaviour is astonishingly like Huang and Turcotte's model, in which Wallace Creek corresponds to the stronger block and Pallett Creek the weaker. After each coupled event, there is 90------------,---,----,----,----,---, a long quiescence at Pallett Creek followed by a series of