Modelling the diffusion and operation of anaerobic digestions in Great Britain under future scenarios within the scope of water-energy-food nexus
Modelling the diffusion and operation of anaerobic digestions in Great Britain under future scenarios within the scope of water-energy-food nexus
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119897
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发表时间：
2020-04-20
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Varga, Liz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abdel-Aal, Mohamad;Haltas, Ismail;Varga, Liz
本文旨在了解厌氧消化（AD）的空间和时间扩散对水能源食品（WEF）关系的影响，并量化相关的环境，社会和经济效益。当代严格的碳减排目标迫切需要部署可再生能源技术，但由于世界经济论坛关系的相互依赖性，各种技术对某些部门有利，但不是所有部门。本文量化了未来可能的反倾销技术扩散选择对环境、社会和经济的影响。这可以帮助决策者确定未来三十年内各种反倾销替代品的潜在后果。该研究考虑了一种综合的世界经济论坛关系方法，并说明了关系中的相互依存关系。这是通过开发一个基于代理的模型（ABM）和模拟的关系内的主要参与者之间的关系，从而研究规模扩大的AD扩散及其后果的水消费，能源生产，运输，垃圾填埋场的使用，食品废物处理和可再生能源的产生。三个未来的世界经济论坛关系的情况下，反映了潜在的替代品的社会和技术在英国到2050年，利用反弹道导弹的实施，以测试的敏感性AD扩散的选择。这些情景描述了生活方式、治理、技术、气候和社会结构可能发生的变化。考虑到与此类未来模拟相关的不确定性，采用蒙特卡罗方法估计情景输出的潜在变化。结果表明，权力下放导致最大的碳减排，但可能会产生更多的成本。集中化多消耗35%的水，但多产生37%的能源（沼气）。该文件以图形方式可视化了情景输出，以突出忽视AD的环境，社会和经济方面之间的相互关系的后果。(C)2019由Elsevier Ltd.出版
The paper aims to understand the impacts of the spatial and temporal diffusion of Anaerobic Digestion (AD) on the Water Energy Food (WEF) nexus and to quantify the associated environmental, social and economic benefits. Contemporary tight carbon reduction targets urge the need to deploy renewable energy technologies however due to interdependencies across the WEF nexus, various technologies are beneficial for some but not all sectors. This paper quantifies the impacts of future possible AD technology diffusion choices on the environment, society and economy. This can aid decision makers to identify the potential consequences of various AD alternatives within the next three decades. The study considers an integrated WEF nexus approach and accounts for the interdependencies within the nexus. This was done by developing an Agent-Based Model (ABM) and simulating the relations between the main players within the nexus, thus examining the upscaling of AD diffusion and its consequences for water consumption, energy production, transportation, landfill use, food waste processing and digestate generation. Three future WEF nexus scenarios, that reflect potential alternatives of society and technology in Great Britain up to 2050, were utilised by the ABM implementation to test the sensitivity of AD diffusion choices. These scenarios describe possible changes to lifestyle, governance, technologies, climate, and social structures. Accounting for the uncertainty associated with such future simulations, the Monte Carlo method was employed to estimate the potential variations in scenario outputs. Results suggest that decentralisation results in the largest carbon reduction, but can incur more costs. Centralisation consumes 35% more water but produces 37% more energy (biogas). The paper has visualised the scenario outputs graphically to highlight the consequences of neglecting the inter-relationships between environmental, social and economic aspects of AD. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier Ltd.