How Unusual Is the 2022 European Compound Drought and Heatwave Event?
How Unusual Is the 2022 European Compound Drought and Heatwave Event?
复制标题
2022年欧洲复合干旱和热浪事件有多不寻常？
DOI：
10.1029/2023gl105453
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发表时间：
2023-08
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
K. P. Tripathy;Anshuman Mishra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. P. Tripathy;Anshuman Mishra
2022 年的复合干旱和热浪 (CDHW) 在整个欧洲造成了大范围的农作物受损、水资源短缺和野火。我们的研究分析了该事件的严重程度和重现期 (RP)，并将其与欧洲过去的大型 CDHW 进行了比较。受灾最严重的地区是伊比利亚半岛、法国和意大利，气温比常年高出2.5℃以上，5月至8月持续严重干旱。我们使用贝叶斯方法估计了 2022 年 CDHW 事件的 RP，这在意大利北部、伊比利亚半岛和法国西部地区是前所未有的，RP 分别为 354 年、420 年和 280 年。由于降水不足和高温导致土壤湿度减少，导致干旱持续且严重，形成一个正反馈循环，干燥的土壤导致更加干燥的条件。根据我们的发现，全球变暖显然会增加严重 CDHW 事件的风险，而且这种风险可能会增加。
The 2022 Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) caused widespread crop damage, water shortages, and wildfires across Europe. Our study analyzed this event’s severity and return period (RP) and compared it with past mega CDHWs in Europe. The hardest‐hit areas were Iberian Peninsula, France, and Italy, where temperatures exceeded 2.5°C above normal, and severe droughts persisted from May to August. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimated the RP for the 2022 CDHW event, which was unprecedented in Northern Italy, Iberian Peninsula, and western parts of France, with RPs of 354, 420, and 280 years, respectively. The reduced soil moisture due to precipitation deficits and high temperatures contributed to the persistence and severity of drought, creating a positive feedback loop where dry soils led to even drier conditions. In light of our findings, it is evident that global warming poses increased risks of severe CDHW events, which are likely to increase.