An In-Depth Assessment of Water Resource Responses to Regional Development Policies Using Hydrological Variation Analysis and System Dynamics Modeling
An In-Depth Assessment of Water Resource Responses to Regional Development Policies Using Hydrological Variation Analysis and System Dynamics Modeling
复制标题
DOI：
10.3390/su12145814
复制
发表时间：
2020-07
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Z. Liao;Yangyang Li;Wen-shu Xiong;Xuan Wang;Dan Liu;Yun-long Zhang;Chun-hui Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Z. Liao;Yangyang Li;Wen-shu Xiong;Xuan Wang;Dan Liu;Yun-long Zhang;Chun-hui Li
为了保持区域水资源的可持续性和可利用性，适当的水资源综合管理（IWRM）应基于对水资源背景的评估以及对区域开发和利用政策的响应。为支持北方白洋淀地区水资源综合管理，提出了一种结合水文变化分析和系统动力学模型的评价方法。采用变异分析和属性分析相结合的方法，确定了径流量的变异时间和变异原因。然后，根据当前水资源状况，进行可达性分析，探讨在个人内部管理范围内实现社会经济发展和生态环境水资源供需平衡的可能性。最后，一个SD模型模拟水资源响应的发展政策，预测未来的政策影响。结果表明，人类活动对径流的影响占总影响的65.18%。通过内部管理无法实现可持续性目标，但通过生态移民政策和1 × 108 m3跨流域调水，可以快速实现可持续性目标，并恢复水生态系统功能。雄安新区的建立需要引入跨流域综合管理，以保护白洋淀地区免受生态功能退化的影响。本研究为流域内水资源综合管理与跨流域水资源综合管理的比较提供了一种新的方法。
To maintain sustainability and availability of regional water resources, appropriate integrated water resource management (IWRM) should be based on an assessment of water resource background and responses to regional development and utilization policies. The study proposed an assessment method combining hydrological variation analysis with a system dynamics (SD) model to support IWRM in the Baiyangdian Region, Northern China. Integrated variation analysis and attributive analysis were used to identify variation time and causes of runoff. Then, based on the current water resource situation, an accessibility analysis examined the possibility of achieving a water resources supply and demand balance of social economic development and the ecological environment within individual internal management. Finally, an SD model simulated water resource response to development policies to predict future policy impacts. Results showed that 65.18% of the impact on runoff was from human activities. Sustainability goals were impossible through internal management, but with eco-migration policies and 1 × 108 m3 inter-basin transferred water, it could quickly be achieved, and water ecosystem function could also be recovered. Establishment of the Xiong’an New Area necessitated introduction of integrated cross-basin management to protect the Baiyangdian Region from degradation of its ecological function. Our study proposed a new method for comparation of internal and cross-basin IWRM.