Financial flows and economic growth in developing countries
Financial flows and economic growth in developing countries
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DOI：
10.1016/j.econmod.2019.02.010
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发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Plane, Patrick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Combes, Jean-Louis;Kinda, Tidiane;Plane, Patrick
本文以1980-2012年期间的低收入和中等收入国家为样本，评估了资金流动及其构成对实际汇率和经济增长的影响。资金流动可以通过放松对国内资源的限制直接支持经济增长，但也可以通过实际汇率升值间接削弱增长。采用广义矩量法（GMM）求解动力面板。结果表明，净资金流动直接或间接地影响经济增长：(i)资金流动总额每增加1%，实际汇率就会升值0.5%；（ii）汇款的实际汇率升值效应是援助效应的两倍，是外国直接投资效应的十倍；（三）无论发展水平如何，资金流动都会刺激经济增长。人均资金流量增加10美元，可使年增长率增加0.08个百分点。当我们控制实际汇率的负面影响时，这一收益相当于0.15。外国直接投资和证券投资等市场导向流动的不稳定性加剧了经济增长率的不稳定性。
This paper assesses the impact of financial flows and their composition on the real exchange rate and on economic growth for a sample of low- and middle-income countries over the period of 1980-2012. Financial flows can directly support economic growth by relaxing constraints on domestic resources, but can also indirectly weaken growth through appreciation of the real exchange rate. We use the generalized method of moments (GMM) for dynamic panel. Results show that net financial flows affect economic growth both directly and indirectly: (i) a one percent increase in total financial flows appreciates the real exchange rate by 0.5 percent; (ii) the real exchange rate appreciation effect of remittances is twice the effect of aid and ten times greater than the effect of Foreign Direct Investments; (iii) financial flows stimulate economic growth regardless of the development level. An increase of $10 per capita financial flows leads to a gain of 0.08 points of annual growth. This gain amounts to 0.15 when we control for the negative impact of the real exchange rate. Instability of market-oriented flows, such as FDI and portfolio investments, exacerbates instability of the economic growth rate.