Extreme Arctic cyclones in CMIP5 historical simulations
Extreme Arctic cyclones in CMIP5 historical simulations
复制标题
CMIP5 历史模拟中的极端北极气旋
DOI：
10.1002/2013gl058161
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
S. Vavrus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Vavrus
人们越来越关注极端天气，包括最近引人注目的极具破坏性的气旋事件。2012年夏天，一场历史上最强大的气旋袭击了北极地区，该地区正在经历快速变暖和冰雪覆盖的急剧减少。本研究通过调查耦合模式比对项目5 （CMIP5）存档的全球气候模式在历史时期（1850-2005）模拟的极端北极气旋，探讨了这种强风暴是否是人为气候变化的一种新表现。这些环流模式能够模拟与强极地风暴有关的极端压力，而不需要对模式分辨率有很大依赖。这些模式通过主要在亚极地气旋区（阿留申群岛和冰岛）周围并优先在冬季产生极端北极风暴，显示了其真实性。模拟的北极平均海平面气压和极端气旋的长期趋势是模棱两可的；两者都表明，某些地区的风暴增多，但与未来的预测相比，迄今为止的变化幅度不大。
Increasing attention is being paid to extreme weather, including recent high‐profile events involving very destructive cyclones. In summer 2012, a historically powerful cyclone traversed the Arctic, a region experiencing rapid warming and dramatic loss of ice and snow cover. This study addresses whether such powerful storms are an emerging expression of anthropogenic climate change by investigating simulated extreme Arctic cyclones during the historical period (1850–2005) among global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive. These general circulation models are able to simulate extreme pressures associated with strong polar storms without a significant dependence on model resolution. The models display realism by generating extreme Arctic storms primarily around subpolar cyclone regions (Aleutian and Icelandic) and preferentially during winter. Simulated secular trends in Arctic mean sea level pressure and extreme cyclones are equivocal; both indicate increasing storminess in some regions, but the magnitude of changes to date are modest compared with future projections.