Japan's 'National Resilience Plan': Its Promise and Perils in the Wake of the Election 日本の「国土強靱化計画」 選挙を経て、可能性と危険性
Japan's 'National Resilience Plan': Its Promise and Perils in the Wake of the Election 日本の「国土強靱化計画」 選挙を経て、可能性と危険性
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日本的“国家复原力计划”：选举后的承诺和危险 日本的“国家复原力计划”：选举后的承诺和危险
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发表时间：
2014
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通讯作者：
A. Dewit
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作者：
A. Dewit
本文重点介绍了日本的国家韧性（“Kokudo Kyoujinka”）战略，这是一个非常重要的，数万亿日元的倡议，在12月14日大选前的竞选期间（令人难以置信地）被忽视，并继续被忽视。与大多数国家为增强抵御气候变化和其他专利威胁的能力所做的努力一样，日本计划的内容也在不断完善中。但日本战略的规模和范围是无与伦比的，因为它预计将从2014财年的3.6万亿日元增长到2015财年的4.54万亿日元。1如果处理得当，这对日本的韧性和可持续增长前景以及全球社会都有巨大的好处。然而，在安倍经济学没有明确方向的情况下，日本的倡议可能会在公路和其他混凝土密集型项目上浪费掉。此外，该方案的核心机构，特别是新成立的日本复原力协会，可以被征召参加日本修正主义者争取宪法改革和攻击民间社会的和平主义和批判性思维的斗争。本文首先分析了选举结果及其解读，以揭示日本政治在选举后令人不安的不确定性。然后，报告根据这种不确定性审议了复原力倡议。最后一节提出了一些建议，如何帮助培养一个真正有弹性的日本，并防止它浪费机会，而不是成为东亚政治和经济不稳定的根源。
This article highlights Japan’s National Resilience (“Kokudo Kyoujinka”) strategy, a very important, multi-trillion-yen initiative that was (incredibly) ignored during the campaign preceding the December 14 election and continues to be. Like most countries’ efforts to bolster resilience against accelerating climate change and other patent threats, the content of Japan’s plan is a work in progress. But the scale and scope of Japan’s strategy is unparalleled, as it is slated to grow from YEN 3.6 trillion in FY 2014 to YEN 4.54 trillion in FY 2015. 1 Properly done, it could be of immense benefit to Japan’s resilience and sustainable growth prospects as well as to the global community. However, in the absence of any clear direction to Abenomics, Japan’s initiative could be largely squandered on roads and other concrete-intensive projects. Moreover, the programme’s core agencies, especially the newly established Association for Resilience Japan, could be conscripted in Japan’s revisionists’ fight for constitutional reform and the attack on pacificism and critical thinking in civil society. This article first examines the election results and interpretations of them, to show the troubling post-election uncertainty of Japanese politics. It then considers the resilience initiative in light of that uncertainty. The concluding section offers some suggestions on how to help foster a truly resilient Japan and prevent it from squandering the opportunity, instead becoming a source of even more political and economic instability in East Asia.