The future of coal investment, trade, and stranded assets
The future of coal investment, trade, and stranded assets
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煤炭投资、贸易和搁浅资产的未来
DOI：
10.1016/j.joule.2021.05.008
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发表时间：
2021-06-16
期刊：
影响因子：
39.8
通讯作者：
Staffell, Iain
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Auger, Thomas;Truby, Johannes;Staffell, Iain
煤炭正处于十字路口，西方的撤资和逐步淘汰与整个亚洲的快速增长相抗衡。全球能源情景表明，煤炭消费量可能在未来十年减半，但这一深刻转变的商业和地缘政治影响仍未得到充分探讨。我们使用完全竞争技术经济模型研究了2040年的煤炭市场。在远低于2摄氏度的情况下，欧洲、北美和澳大利亚将面临产能过剩，目前三分之一的矿山将成为搁浅资产。需要新的矿山来抵消退休，但可以避免2030年代的新商品周期。煤炭价格下跌，因为只有最具竞争力的煤矿才能生存下来，贸易量下降，形成了更多孤立的国家市场。各地区每年因减少进口账单或出口收入而获得或损失数百亿美元。了解这些变化并为之做好准备，可以缓解在150年的主导地位之后摆脱煤炭的过渡。
Coal is at a crossroads, with divestment and phase-out in the West countered by the surging growth throughout Asia. Global energy scenarios suggest that coal consumption could halve over the next decade, but the business and geopolitical implications of this profound shift remain underexplored. We investigate coal markets to 2040 using a perfect competition techno-economic model. In a well-below-2 degrees C scenario, Europe, North America, and Australia suf fer from over-capacity, with one-third of today's mines becoming stranded assets. New mines are needed to offset retirements, but a new commodity cycle in the 2030s can be avoided. Coal prices decline as only the most competitive mines survive, and trade volumes fall to give more insular national markets. Regions stand to gain or lose tens of billions of dollars per year from reducing import bills or export revenues. Understanding and preparing for these changes could ease the transition away from coal following 150 years of dominance.