Cell Phone Use and Crash Risk: Evidence for Positive Bias
Cell Phone Use and Crash Risk: Evidence for Positive Bias
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手机使用和碰撞风险：积极偏见的证据
DOI：
10.1097/ede.0b013e31823b5efc
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
R. Young
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Young
背景：最近的流行病学研究估计，与司机使用手机通话有关的车祸风险很少或没有增加，而早期的病例交叉研究估计相对风险接近4。早期研究是否高估了控制窗口中的驾驶暴露，从而在相对风险估计中引入了积极的偏向？方法：将2005-2006年间普吉特湾地区439辆装有GPS仪器的车辆在100天内在“对照”窗口和相应的“案例”窗口中的驾驶暴露情况列成表格。结果：对于至少包含一些驾驶的对照窗口，驾驶暴露大约是案例窗口的四分之一。对这种不平衡进行调整后，早期的病例交叉研究中的相对风险估计值从4降至1。结论：早期的病例交叉研究可能高估了开车时打电话的相对风险，因为它隐含地假设，在控制窗口开车时开车是全职的，而实际上可能只是兼职。
Background: Recent epidemiologic studies have estimated little or no increased risk of automotive crashes related to cell phone conversations by the driver, whereas earlier case-crossover studies estimated the relative risk as close to 4. Did earlier studies introduce a positive bias in relative risk estimates by overestimating driving exposure in control windows? Methods: Driving exposures in a “control” window and a corresponding “case” window on the subsequent day were tabulated across 100 days for 439 GPS-instrumented vehicles in the Puget Sound area during 2005–2006. Results: For control windows containing at least some driving, driving exposure was about one-fourth that of case windows. Adjusting for this imbalance reduces relative risk estimates in the earlier case-crossover studies from 4 to 1. Conclusion: Earlier case-crossover studies likely overestimated the relative risk for cell phone conversations while driving by implicitly assuming that driving during a control window was full-time when it may have been only part-time.