Forecasting uptake of retrofit packages in office building stock under government incentives
Forecasting uptake of retrofit packages in office building stock under government incentives
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预测政府激励措施下办公楼存量改造方案的采用情况
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.041
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
S. Seo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Higgins;M. Syme;James McGregor;L. Marquez;S. Seo
由于政府和行业计划减少建筑群的能源消耗，因此有必要预测随着时间的推移，整个建筑群的改造方案的采用情况。为了应对这一挑战，建立了扩散模型并将其应用于澳大利亚新南威尔士州 (NSW) 的办公楼存量，该模型具有高空间分辨率和时间能力，可预测以多个变量为特征的技术包的采用情况。为扩散模型设置了六个改造套餐，从廉价的服务和手册到涉及节能 T5 照明和太阳能热水的中等价格套餐，再到昂贵的冷梁和太阳能光伏等套餐。我们使用一个基本案例和两个代表绿色建筑基金和环境升级协议的政策计划来评估该模型。这些是澳大利亚政府最近资助的激励计划，旨在通过为前期支出提供财政支持并消除改造障碍，加速改造方案的采用。通过预测到 2032 年每个计划下每个改造方案的采用情况，我们展示了该模型如何成为定制昂贵的政府计划并提高其有效性的宝贵资源。
As government and industry plan to reduce energy consumption in building stock, there is a need to forecast the uptake of retrofit packages across building stock over time. To address this challenge a diffusion model was set up and applied to office building stock across New South Wales (NSW) in Australia, accommodating a high spatial resolution and temporal capability for projecting uptake of technology packages characterised by multiple variables. Six retrofit packages were set up for the diffusion model, which ranged from inexpensive services and manuals through to mid-priced packages involving energy efficient T5 lighting and solar hot water through to expensive packages such as chilled beams and Solar PV. We evaluated the model using a base case and two policy programs, representing the Green Building Fund and Environmental Upgrade Agreements. These were recent incentive programs funded by the Australian government to accelerate the uptake of retrofit packages, by providing financial support to upfront expenditures and removing barriers to retrofit. By forecasting uptake of each retrofit package to 2032 under each program, we demonstrate how the model can be a valuable resource in tailoring expensive government programs and increasing their effectiveness.