Regime Shift Theory
Regime Shift Theory
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政权更迭理论
DOI：
10.5026/jgeography.119.482
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Kawasaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Kawasaki
由大气、海洋和海洋生态系统组成的全球环境系统的结构(体制)在年代际时间尺度上反复从一种状态转移到另一种状态，这就是所谓的“体制转移”。1983年首次发现RS，太平洋三个相距遥远的沙丁鱼种群的生物量同步波动，这与全球气温密切相关，也观察到不同地区沙丁鱼和凤尾鱼之间的同步交替发生。此后，在广泛的分类群和生态系统中也发现了类似的同步变化。自20世纪80年代末以来，RS一直在报道北太平洋和大西洋的海洋气候。这些不同领域的研究已经合并，创建了一个新的跨学科研究领域。遥感的概念对传统的海洋生物资源管理制度产生了影响，必须重新审视《联合国海洋法公约》。全球变暖和过度捕捞可能会扰乱RS的正常过程。
Structure (regime) of the global environmental system composed of atmosphere, oceans and marine ecosystems has repeatedly shifted from one state to the other on an interdecadal timescale, which is called “regime shift” (RS). The RS was first discovered in 1983 with synchronous fluctuations in biomass of three distantly separated sardine populations in the Pacific, which were closely linked to the global air temperatures, and the synchronized occurrences of an alternation between the sardine and anchovy in different areas were also observed. Similar synchronized variations have been detected thereafter in a wide range of taxa and ecosystems. Since the late 1980s, the RS has been reported about the ocean climate in the North Pacific Ocean as well as in the Atlantic. Studies in these different areas have been merged, creating a new interdisciplinary study area. The concept of the RS has had an effect on the traditional management regime of marine living resources and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea has to be re-examined. Global warming and overfishing could disrupt the normal processes of the RS.