Evaluating and Predicting Shadow Prices of Water Resources in China and Its Nine Major River Basins
Evaluating and Predicting Shadow Prices of Water Resources in China and Its Nine Major River Basins
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DOI：
10.1007/s11269-008-9336-7
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发表时间：
2009-06
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Xiuli Liu;Xikang Chen;Shouyang Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xiuli Liu;Xikang Chen;Shouyang Wang
水价在水资源管理中起着关键作用。水影价是制定水价的重要参考。有人说，在实践中，通过求解线性规划模型来获得水影价格几乎是不可能的。本文利用中国九大流域的水利经济投入-占用-产出表，将投入-产出分析方法与线性规划方法相结合，建立了以最终需求、总产出、贸易平衡和水可用性为约束条件的线性规划模型。本文估算了1999年中国9个主要流域工业用水和生产用水的水影价格，并与1999年中国实际工业用水价格进行了比较。然后，为了便于操作和估算工业用水和生产用水的影子价格，采用高斯-牛顿非线性模拟方法，建立了两个将用水量与水资源总量之比与影子价格联系起来的非线性模型，预测了2020年和2030年中国及其9大流域工业用水和生产用水的影子价格。
Water pricing plays a crucial role in water resources management. Water shadow price is an important reference in setting water price. It was said that in practice it is almost impossible to obtain water shadow price by solving a linear programming model. In this paper we use water conservancy economy input-occupancy-output tables of the nine Chinese major river basins, and combining input–output analysis method with linear programming method we develop a linear programming model with restrictions on the final demand, total output, trade balance and water availability. We estimate the water shadow prices for industrial water and productive water for the nine Chinese major river basins in 1999 and compared these results with the real industrial water price in China in 1999. Then, for operational purposes and to estimate the shadow prices of industrial water and productive water more easily, and using a Gauss–Newton nonlinear simulation method, we present two nonlinear models that relate the ratio of the volume of water used to the total water resources volume with the shadow prices to predict shadow prices of industrial water and productive water in 2020 and 2030 in China and its nine major river basins.