Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989
Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989
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DOI：
10.1016/s0079-6611(00)00033-1
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发表时间：
2000-01-01
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Mantua, NJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hare, SR;Mantua, NJ
1976 ~ 1977年冬季北太平洋发生了一次气候体制转换，这一观点已被广泛接受。这种制度的转变对北太平洋的大型海洋生态系统产生了深远的影响。尽管这一转变引发的变化的强度和范围很大，但人们在10-15年后才完全认识到这一点。随后的研究表明，这一事件在历史记录中并不是独一无二的，而只是一系列气候变化中的最新一次。在这项研究中，我们收集了100个环境时间序列，31个气候和69个生物，以确定是否有证据表明，在1965年至1997年期间的记录共同政权的信号。我们的分析再现了先前记录的1977年制度转变的特征，并确定了1989年北太平洋生态系统的某些组成部分的进一步转变。1989年的变化既不像1977年的变化那样普遍，也不意味着简单地回到1977年以前的状况。1989年体制转变的一个显著特点是生物记录相对清晰，这与太平洋气候指数相对缺乏明确变化形成鲜明对比。因此，北太平洋和白令海的大型海洋生态系统似乎对气候变率有很强的过滤作用，对环境强迫的响应是非线性的。我们的结论是，监测北太平洋和白令海的生态系统可能允许更早地识别政权的转变比单独监测气候数据是可能的。
It is now widely accepted that a climatic regime shift transpired in the North Pacific Ocean in the winter of 1976–77. This regime shift has had far reaching consequences for the large marine ecosystems of the North Pacific. Despite the strength and scope of the changes initiated by the shift, it was 10–15 years before it was fully recognized. Subsequent research has suggested that this event was not unique in the historical record but merely the latest in a succession of climatic regime shifts. In this study, we assembled 100 environmental time series, 31 climatic and 69 biological, to determine if there is evidence for common regime signals in the 1965–1997 period of record. Our analysis reproduces previously documented features of the 1977 regime shift, and identifies a further shift in 1989 in some components of the North Pacific ecosystem. The 1989 changes were neither as pervasive as the 1977 changes nor did they signal a simple return to pre-1977 conditions. A notable feature of the 1989 regime shift is the relative clarity that is found in biological records, which contrasts with the relative lack of clear changes expressed by indices of Pacific climate. Thus, the large marine ecosystems of the North Pacific and Bering Sea appear to filter climate variability strongly, and respond nonlinearly to environmental forcing. We conclude that monitoring North Pacific and Bering Sea ecosystems may allow for an earlier identification of regime shifts than is possible from monitoring climate data alone.