A paradigm for population analysis of long-lived vertebrates
A paradigm for population analysis of long-lived vertebrates
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DOI：
10.2307/3072020
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发表时间：
2002-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Eberhardt, LL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eberhardt, LL
人口接近最高水平时观察到的一系列生命率变化被用作a的基础。人口分析的“范式”。先前的研究表明，早期存活率首先下降，其次是较低的繁殖率;最终，成年女性的存活率可能会下降。“敏感性”的人口增长率，作为衡量的偏导数的近似洛特卡-莱斯利模型，似乎遵循相同的序列，这表明人口调控可能遵循该序列。这可能意味着在序列中有一些进化意义，因此，通过测量生命率来评估种群状况是可能的，如本文报告的一些例子所示。在实地测量人口动态率会受到各种偏差的影响;因此，分析应包括对人口趋势的直接估计。在缺乏完整数据的情况下，可以使用适当的趋势数据来估计缺失率。Bootstrapping提供了一种获得置信区间的简单方法，delta方法可用于获得方差分量，从而改善抽样。给出了研究趋势的各种方法，并附有实例和简单的统计检验。
A sequence of changes in vital rates observed as populations approach maximal levels has been used as the basis for a. "paradigm" for population analysis. Previous work indicates that early survival decreases first, followed by lower reproductive rates; ultimately, adult female survival may decrease. "Sensitivity" of population growth rates, as measured by partial derivatives of an approximation to the Lotka-Leslie model, appears to follow the same sequence, suggesting that population regulation may follow that sequence. This may imply some evolutionary significance in the sequence.Thus, it may be possible to assess population status by measuring the vital rates, as shown in a number of examples reported here. Measuring vital rates in the field is subject to a variety of biases; hence, an analysis should include direct estimates of population trend. In the absence of complete data, suitable trend data might be used to estimate missing rates. Bootstrapping provides a simple way to obtain confidence intervals, and the delta method can be used to obtain components of variance and thus improve sampling. Various methods for studying trend are given, with examples and simple statistical tests.