Multi-polygenic score approach to trait prediction.

Multi-polygenic score approach to trait prediction.
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DOI:
10.1038/mp.2017.163
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发表时间:
2018-05
影响因子:
11
通讯作者:
Plomin R
Plomin R
中科院分区:
医学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Krapohl E;Patel H;Newhouse S;Curtis CJ;von Stumm S;Dale PS;Zabaneh D;Breen G;O'Reilly PF;Plomin R

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多基因评分的主要目标是估计个体特异性遗传倾向并预测结果,多基因评分汇总了全基因组关联研究(GWAS)中发现的数千种性状相关DNA变异的影响。这通常使用单个多基因评分来实现,但在这里,我们使用多多基因评分(MPS)方法,通过利用多个发现GWAS的联合能力来提高预测能力,而无需假设预测因子之间的关系。我们使用了81个关于认知、医学和人体测量特征的有效GWAS的汇总统计数据来预测我们独立目标样本的三个核心发展结果:教育成就、体重指数(BMI)和一般认知能力。我们使用正则化回归与重复交叉验证,以选择和估计的贡献81多基因得分在英国代表性样本的6710无关的青少年。MPS方法在一个独立的测试集中预测了10.9%的教育成就方差,4.8%的一般认知能力方差和5.4%的BMI方差,预测比最佳单分数预测多1.1%,1.1%和1.6%的方差。由于其他相关的GWA分析报告,它们可以被纳入MPS模型,以最大限度地提高表型预测。MPS方法应该是有用的研究与适度的样本量调查发展,多变量和基因环境相互作用的问题,并最终在临床环境中预测和预防问题使用个性化的干预措施。
A primary goal of polygenic scores, which aggregate the effects of thousands of trait-associated DNA variants discovered in genome-wide association studies (GWASs), is to estimate individual-specific genetic propensities and predict outcomes. This is typically achieved using a single polygenic score, but here we use a multi-polygenic score (MPS) approach to increase predictive power by exploiting the joint power of multiple discovery GWASs, without assumptions about the relationships among predictors. We used summary statistics of 81 well-powered GWASs of cognitive, medical and anthropometric traits to predict three core developmental outcomes in our independent target sample: educational achievement, body mass index (BMI) and general cognitive ability. We used regularized regression with repeated cross-validation to select from and estimate contributions of 81 polygenic scores in a UK representative sample of 6710 unrelated adolescents. The MPS approach predicted 10.9% variance in educational achievement, 4.8% in general cognitive ability and 5.4% in BMI in an independent test set, predicting 1.1%, 1.1%, and 1.6% more variance than the best single-score predictions. As other relevant GWA analyses are reported, they can be incorporated in MPS models to maximize phenotype prediction. The MPS approach should be useful in research with modest sample sizes to investigate developmental, multivariate and gene–environment interplay issues and, eventually, in clinical settings to predict and prevent problems using personalized interventions.
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