End-To-End Models for the Analysis of Marine Ecosystems: Challenges, Issues, and Next Steps
End-To-End Models for the Analysis of Marine Ecosystems: Challenges, Issues, and Next Steps
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DOI：
10.1577/c09-059.1
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Zhou, Meng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rose, Kenneth A.;Allen, J. Icarus;Zhou, Meng
人们对通过更高的营养水平来处理气候变化影响的海洋生态系统模型越来越感兴趣。这种端到端模型将联合收割机物理化学海洋学描述符和从微生物到包括人类在内的高营养级生物体的生物体结合在一个单一的建模框架中。之所以需要这种办法，是因为需要基于生态系统的管理的量化工具，特别是能够处理自下而上和自上而下控制的模式，这些模式同时运作，并在时间和空间上有所不同，而且能够处理气候变化的多重预期影响。由于组件子模型的改进和足够的计算能力的可用性，端到端模型现在是可行的。我们讨论了与端到端模型开发相关的九个问题。这些问题涉及浮游动物子模型的制定，多个时间和空间尺度的融合，驯化和适应，行为运动，软件和技术，模型耦合，技能评估和跨学科的挑战。我们敦促在真正的预测模式中限制使用端到端模型，直到我们更多地了解它们的性能。端到端模型将挑战可用数据以及我们分析和解释产生复杂行为的复杂模型的能力。端到端建模正处于早期发展阶段，因此提供了一个机会，可以建立一个由一套真正的跨学科努力支持的开放访问，基于社区的方法。
There is growing interest in models of marine ecosystems that deal with the effects of climate change through the higher trophic levels. Such end-to-end models combine physicochemical oceanographic descriptors and organisms ranging from microbes to higher-trophic-level (HTL) organisms, including humans, in a single modeling framework. The demand for such approaches arises from the need for quantitative tools for ecosystem-based management, particularly models that can deal with bottom-up and top-down controls that operate simultaneously and vary in time and space and that are capable of handling the multiple impacts expected under climate change. End-to-end models are now feasible because of improvements in the component submodels and the availability of sufficient computing power. We discuss nine issues related to the development of end-to-end models. These issues relate to formulation of the zooplankton submodel, melding of multiple temporal and spatial scales, acclimation and adaptation, behavioral movement, software and technology, model coupling, skill assessment, and interdisciplinary challenges. We urge restraint in using end-to-end models in a true forecasting mode until we know more about their performance. End-to-end models will challenge the available data and our ability to analyze and interpret complicated models that generate complex behavior. End-to-end modeling is in its early developmental stages and thus presents an opportunity to establish an open-access, community-based approach supported by a suite of true interdisciplinary efforts.