Breaking Free of the Triple Coincidence in International Finance
Breaking Free of the Triple Coincidence in International Finance
复制标题
打破国际金融的三重巧合
DOI：
10.1093/epolic/eiw009
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
H. Shin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stefan Avdjiev;Robert N. McCauley;H. Shin
国际金融的传统方法是将资本流动视为储蓄和投资决策的金融对应物，并进一步假设GDP边界既定义了决策单位，也定义了货币区。GDP区域、决策单位和货币区的“三重重合”是一种优雅的简化，但在金融流动本身很重要的情况下却具有误导性。首先，当只考虑净资金流时，忽视总资金流可能会导致对金融脆弱性的误诊。其次，忽视国际货币的影响可能会导致汇率调整的错误结论。第三，企业和官方部门立场的行业差异可能会扭曲有关货币贬值后果的福利结论，因为宏观经济风险可能被低估。本文通过近年来全球金融体系的一系列例子说明了三重重合的陷阱，并考察了以资产负债表为分析单位的其他分析框架。
The traditional approach to international finance is to view capital flows as the financial counterpart to savings and investment decisions, assuming further that the GDP boundary defines both the decision-making unit and the currency area. This ‘triple coincidence’ of GDP area, decision-making unit and currency area is an elegant simplification but misleads when financial flows are important in their own right. First, the neglect of gross flows, when only net flows are considered, can lead to misdiagnoses of financial vulnerability. Second, inattention to the effects of international currencies may lead to erroneous conclusions on exchange rate adjustment. Third, sectoral differences between corporate and official sector positions can distort welfare conclusions on the consequences of currency depreciation, as macroeconomic risks may be underestimated. This paper illustrates the pitfalls of the triple coincidence through a series of examples from the global financial system in recent years and examines alternative analytical frameworks based on balance sheets as the unit of analysis.