International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa
International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02353.x
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发表时间：
2010-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Ciccone, Antonio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brueckner, Markus;Ciccone, Antonio
为了更多地了解经济状况对内战的影响，我们研究了撒哈拉以南地区的内战是否更有可能在各国主要出口商品的国际价格下跌后开始。数据显示，大宗商品价格低迷对内战爆发的影响很大。我们还发现，随着经合组织主要出口目的地的经济衰退，撒哈拉以南国家更有可能爆发内战。
To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries' main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.