Time series analysis of injuries.
Time series analysis of injuries.
复制标题
伤害的时间序列分析。
DOI：
10.1002/sim.4780081209
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发表时间：
1989
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
A. Zaidi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Martinez;A. Zaidi
我们使用时间序列模型对1972年至1983年在美国选定的致命伤害进行探索性和验证性分析。我们为每月、每周和每天的死亡序列建立了自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型，并使用这些模型产生假设。这些死亡是由六种伤害原因造成的：机动车、自杀、他杀、跌倒、溺水和住宅火灾。对于每个伤害原因，我们估计了日历对每月死亡人数的影响。我们用传递函数模型证实了车辆行驶里程对机动车死亡人数的显著影响。最后，我们对机动车造成的死亡进行了干预分析。
We used time series models in the exploratory and confirmatory analysis of selected fatal injuries in the United States from 1972 to 1983. We built autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for monthly, weekly, and daily series of deaths and used these models to generate hypotheses. These deaths resulted from six causes of injuries: motor vehicles, suicides, homicides, falls, drownings, and residential fires. For each cause of injury, we estimated calendar effects on the monthly death counts. We confirmed the significant effect of vehicle miles travelled on motor vehicle fatalities with a transfer function model. Finally, we applied intervention analysis to deaths due to motor vehicles.