A simple two‐stage model for cancer risk in the environment
A simple two‐stage model for cancer risk in the environment
复制标题
环境中癌症风险的简单两阶段模型
DOI：
10.1002/env.498
复制
发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Nobutane Hanayama
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nobutane Hanayama
在Lexis图上提出了一个简单的两阶段（STS）癌症死亡率模型来预测环境中的癌症风险，并讨论了该模型中参数的mle的可识别性、存在性和一致性。从STS和年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型对日本数据的拟合结果可以看出，STS模型比APC模型提供了更好的数据拟合，尽管STS模型的参数数量比APC模型少。另外，1880 ~ 1900年的工业革命阶段、二战时期的营养不良阶段、1950 ~ 1975年的经济复苏和高增长阶段的环境污染风险较高。版权所有©2001约翰威利父子有限公司
A simple two‐stage (STS) model for cancer death rates on the Lexis diagram is proposed to project cancer risk in the environment, and the identifiability, the existence and consistency of MLEs for the parameters in the proposed model are discussed. From the results of fitting STS and the age‐period‐cohort (APC) model to the data obtained in Japan it is seen that the STS model provides a better fit to the data than the APC model even though the STS model has a smaller number of parameters than the APC model. Further, the results suggest that there are high risks associated with the environmental pollution due to the phase of industrial revolution between 1880 and 1900, malnourishment in the period of World War II, and the environmental pollution due to the economy in the recovery and high growth period between 1950 and 1975. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.