Pseudoreplication in Tropical Forests and the Resulting Effects on Biodiversity Conservation
Pseudoreplication in Tropical Forests and the Resulting Effects on Biodiversity Conservation
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DOI：
10.1111/cobi.12004
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发表时间：
2013-04-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Potts, Matthew D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ramage, Benjamin S.;Sheil, Douglas;Potts, Matthew D.
热带森林生态系统受到生境转换和其他人为活动的威胁。木材生产林可以增加原始森林保护区的养护价值，但是对采伐影响的研究往往得出相互矛盾的结果，从而阻碍了制定明确养护战略的努力。我们假设这种可变性反映了一种常见的方法缺陷，即简单的伪复制，它将测井效应与先前存在的空间变化相混淆。我们回顾了最近关于采伐对热带森林生物多样性影响的研究（n = 77），发现68%的研究确实存在假复制，而只有7%的研究确实没有假复制。其余的比例无法明确分类。此外，我们收集了24个原生林研究样地的7个类群的组成数据，并系统地分析了这些样地的子集，以计算假复制比较错误识别处理效果的概率。错误推断率（即对治疗效果的错误检测）在2个分类群中为bb0.5，在2个分类群中为0.0.3，在2个分类群中为0.35
Tropical forest ecosystems are threatened by habitat conversion and other anthropogenic actions. Timber production forests can augment the conservation value of primary forest reserves, but studies of logging effects often yield contradictory findings and thus inhibit efforts to develop clear conservation strategies. We hypothesized that much of this variability reflects a common methodological flaw, simple pseudoreplication, that confounds logging effects with preexisting spatial variation. We reviewed recent studies of the effects of logging on biodiversity in tropical forests (n = 77) and found that 68% were definitively pseudoreplicated while only 7% were definitively free of pseudoreplication. The remaining proportion could not be clearly categorized. In addition, we collected compositional data on 7 taxa in 24 primary forest research plots and systematically analyzed subsets of these plots to calculate the probability that a pseudoreplicated comparison would incorrectly identify a treatment effect. Rates of false inference (i.e., the spurious detection of a treatment effect) were >0.5 for 2 taxa, 0.30.5 for 2 taxa, and