Working with stakeholders to reduce conflict - modelling the impact of varying hen harrier Circus cyaneus densities on red grouse Lagopus lagopus populations
Working with stakeholders to reduce conflict - modelling the impact of varying hen harrier Circus cyaneus densities on red grouse Lagopus lagopus populations
复制标题
与利益相关者合作减少冲突 - 模拟不同母鸡鹞的密度对红松鸡 Lagopus lagopus 种群的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Redpath
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Elston;L. Spezia;D. Baines;S. Redpath
冲突管理是困难的，科学家与利益攸关方密切合作可能会使冲突管理受益。我们与保育和沼地管理利益团体合作，考虑使用配额制度的可能性，以解决因马戏团捕食红松鸡而产生的长期冲突。2.我们使用随机种群动力学模型模拟了不同的屏障密度对松鸡种群的影响，以便为关于配额制后果的辩论提供信息。利益攸关方委托开展这项工作，并就基本原则、数据集和方法达成一致。3.该模型涵盖了松鸡从低密度恢复到可以重新开始驱赶射击的水平的阶段，因为这一阶段是松鸡沼泽管理者最关心的问题。4.该模型考虑了参数值的不确定性以及人口比率的时间和空间变化。模型的多次运行使我们能够构建概率分布，既包括松鸡种群周期性下降后头两年的种群规模，也包括重新开始猎杀松鸡的年数。5.模型结果量化了松鸡高密度对松鸡管理构成挑战的程度。在0�025km2或以下的猎鹰密度下，据预测，猎鹰的撞击将使秋季松鸡的密度减少10%，这表明从理论上讲，配额制度可以支持松鸡射杀和猎鹰保护之间的共存。6.合成及应用。冲突管理需要冲突方之间进行对话，并可受益于科学家利用商定的证据库提供的客观投入，以及从该证据库透明地得出相关信息。通过在产生模型结果之前与利益相关者小组讨论模型开发的原则和数据集的合格性，我们获得了参与各方的认可。我们的模型为辩论提供了信息：这些额外的信息是否会导致在实践中开发和测试配额制度，仍有待观察。
Summary 1. Conflict management is difficult and may benefit from scientists working closely with stakeholders. We worked with conservation and moorland management interests, to consider the potential use of a quota system to address the long-standing conflict arising from hen harrier Circus cyaneus predation on red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus. 2. We modelled the impact of different harrier densities on grouse populations using a stochastic population dynamics model to inform the debate over the consequences of a quota system. The stakeholders commissioned the work and agreed on the underlying principles, the data sets and the approach. 3. The model covers the recovery phase from low grouse densities to a level at which driven shooting can recommence, as this phase is of paramount concern to the managers of grouse moors. 4. The model incorporated uncertainty in parameter values as well as for temporal and spatial variation in demographic rates. Multiple runs of the model enabled us to construct probability distributions, both for the population sizes in the first 2 years following cyclic lows in the grouse populations and for the number of years to recommencement of driven grouse shooting. 5. The model results quantified the extent to which high densities of harriers pose challenges for grouse management. At harrier densities of or below 0� 025 km 2 , harrier impacts were predicted to reduce autumn grouse densities by <10%, suggesting that a quota scheme could theoretically support coexistence between grouse shooting and harrier conservation. 6. Synthesis and applications. Conflict management requires dialogue between conflicting parties and can benefit from objective inputs from scientists using an agreed evidence base and transparent derivation of relevant information from that evidence base. By discussing the principles of model development and eligibility of data sets with a stakeholder group in advance of producing model results, we achieved buy-in from all parties involved. Our model informs the debate: whether this additional information will lead to the development and testing of a quota system in practice remains to be seen.
从红松鸡 Lagopus lagopus scoticus 的长期研究中洞察种群生态学。
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2656.12098
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
The Journal of animal ecology
影响因子：
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作者：
Martínez-Padilla J
通讯作者：
Martínez-Padilla J