Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean
Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean
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DOI：
10.1029/2022ef002764
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发表时间：
2022-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Birnbaum;J. Lamontagne;T. Wild;F. Dolan;B. Yarlagadda
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作者：
A. Birnbaum;J. Lamontagne;T. Wild;F. Dolan;B. Yarlagadda
未来水资源短缺是全球关注的问题，对能源、水和土地（EWL）行业产生影响。拉丁美洲和加勒比国家是重要的农产品生产国，因此拉丁美洲和加勒比地区缺水造成的破坏具有全球重要性。了解拉丁美洲和加勒比哪些地区可能出现水资源短缺，以及哪些因素可能加剧水资源短缺，对于区域和全球的战略资源管理和规划至关重要。鉴于EWL部门之间复杂的相互作用以及跨空间尺度的多种不确定性，评估拉丁美洲和加勒比未来的水资源短缺具有挑战性。为了阐明这些动态，我们在一个大型集合上使用场景发现，该集合代表使用集成的人类环境系统模型模拟的不同未来。我们通过几个物理和经济指标量化未来的水资源短缺及其经济影响。我们发现，未来水库蓄水量的扩大可能是物理和经济水资源短缺的一个重要驱动因素，突出了战略性水基础设施发展在维持未来水资源可用性方面的重要性。作物利润的变化是由水的供应和需求驱动的，强调了EWL多部门动态的复杂性。虽然大多数拉丁美洲和加勒比地区都有丰富的土地和水资源可供未来开发，但墨西哥和沿着南美洲太平洋沿岸的流域面临严重后果的风险很高，至少在一个指标上存在各种后果的不确定性。我们发现，严重缺水的驱动因素在空间和指标上各不相同，突出了该地区的异质性和考虑多个指标来评估水资源短缺的重要性。
Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could exacerbate it is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity in LAC is challenging given the complex interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on a large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across several physical and economic metrics. We find that future levels of reservoir storage expansion could be a significant driver of physical and economic water scarcity, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability. Changes in crop profit are driven by both water supply and demand, emphasizing the complexity of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for future development, basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high exposure to severe outcomes and uncertainty across outcomes for at least one metric. We find that drivers of severe scarcity vary spatially and across metrics, highlighting the region's heterogeneity and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity.