A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies
A statistical model linking Siberian forest fire scars with early summer rainfall anomalies
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DOI：
10.1029/2006gl026679
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发表时间：
2006-07
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
T. Jupp;C. Taylor;H. Balzter;C. George
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Jupp;C. Taylor;H. Balzter;C. George
西伯利亚森林火灾对全球碳平衡产生重大影响。因此，研究可能导致其变异性的环境因素是很有意义的。在这里，我们研究了 2.5° 空间尺度上每年森林火灾疤痕数量的变化。这在统计上被分解为与夏季降雨量低相关的时空分量、与人口密度相关的空间分量和与北极涛动相关的时间分量。数据来自十年来的卫星数据，包括森林火灾痕迹的数量和每月降雨量。 4 月至 7 月期间，每天降雨量每增加 0.35 毫米，预计火痕数量就会减少一半。我们的研究结果可能有助于根据区域干燥异常的数值天气预报对气候模拟和火灾预警系统中的火灾模型进行参数化。
Forest fires in Siberia have a significant effect on the global carbon balance. It is therefore of interest to study the environmental factors that may be responsible for their variability. Here we examine variability in the annual number of forest fire scars at a spatial scale of 2.5°. This is decomposed statistically into a spatio–temporal component correlated with low summer rainfall, a spatial component correlated with population density and a temporal component correlated with the Arctic Oscillation. Data come from ten years of satellite–derived data, incorporating both the number of forest fire scars and monthly rainfall. The expected number of fire scars halves for each additional 0.35 mm per day of rainfall in the period April–July. Our findings may prove useful in parameterising both fire models within climate simulations and fire warning systems based on numerical weather predictions of regional dry anomalies.