An estimation of the extent of cropland abandonment in mountainous regions of China
An estimation of the extent of cropland abandonment in mountainous regions of China
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DOI：
10.1002/ldr.2924
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Tramberend, Sylvia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Shengfa;Li, Xiubin;Tramberend, Sylvia
随着2003年以来中国农民工工资的大幅增长，农业劳动力的规模一直在迅速缩小。在中国山区，由于农田面积小，地形崎岖，难以实现机械化，因此几乎不可能用农业机械来取代不断减少的农业劳动力。这最终导致了这些地区的农田荒废。在我国粮食安全面临巨大压力的情况下，山区耕地撂荒问题不容忽视。本研究采用一种新的方法，估计了中国山区近期（2000-2010年）的耕地撂荒程度以及未来的变化。结果表明，2000 - 2010年中国山区县耕地撂荒面积约为1.47亿亩（1亩= 666.67 m2），包括退耕还林（绿色）耕地在内，约占山区县耕地撂荒面积的28%。根据3种情景假设，随着预计农业劳动力的迅速减少和老龄化，从2010年到2030年，可能会有相当大的范围（1.14亿至2.03亿亩）的农田被遗弃。这可能会加剧未来维护中国粮食安全的挑战。大幅度增加农业项目投资，包括土地整理和农业生产性固定资产，特别是微耕机，可有助于减轻农田废弃的风险。此外，土地使用和环境决策应考虑到山区日益扩大的农田废弃现象。
With the wages for migrant workers increasing dramatically in China since 2003, the size of the agricultural labour forces has been shrinking rapidly. Intensively substituting agricultural machinery for the shrinking farm labour force is hardly possible for croplands in the mountainous regions of China where mechanization is difficult to achieve due to small field size and rough terrain. This has eventually led to cropland abandonment in these regions. Considering the high pressure for food security in China, cropland abandonment in the mountainous regions should not be ignored. By employing a novel method, this study estimates the extent of recently abandoned croplands (period 2000-2010) and the changes that can be expected in the future in China's mountainous areas. The results show that the total extent of abandoned croplands in Chinese mountainous counties during the period 2000 to 2010 is estimated at 147 million mu (1 mu=666.67m(2)); in total, about 28% of croplands in mountainous counties was abandoned, including croplands converted in the Grain for Green Programme. With 3 scenario assumptions, a sizeable extent, 114 to 203 million mu, of croplands may be abandoned from 2010 to 2030 with the rapid decrease and ageing of projected farm labour forces. This could exacerbate the future challenges of maintaining China's food security. A substantial increase in agricultural project investments, including land consolidation and agricultural productive fixed assets, especially microtillage machines, could help mitigate the risk of cropland abandonment. Additionally, land-use and environmental policymaking should take into account the expanding cropland abandonment in mountainous regions.