Evidence for the effectiveness of minimum pricing of alcohol: a systematic review and assessment using the Bradford Hill criteria for causality.
Evidence for the effectiveness of minimum pricing of alcohol: a systematic review and assessment using the Bradford Hill criteria for causality.
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最低价格定价有效性的证据：使用布拉德福德山因果关系标准进行系统的审查和评估。
DOI：
10.1136/bmjopen-2016-013497
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发表时间：
2017-06-06
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Marlow S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boniface S;Scannell JW;Marlow S
评估基于价格的酒精政策干预的证据，以确定最低单位定价（MUP）是否可能是有效的。根据系统性综述和荟萃分析首选报告项目（PRISMA）指南，对照Bradford Hill因果关系标准，对研究进行系统性综述和评估。从开始到2017年2月检索了3个电子数据库。通过手动检索和灰色文献检索发现了其他文章。我们纳入了任何报告基于价格的干预措施对酒精消费或酒精相关发病率，死亡率和更广泛危害的影响的研究设计。报告税收或负担能力影响的研究以及仅调查需求价格弹性的研究不在本审查范围之内。排除有任何利益冲突的研究。对所有研究进行了方法学质量评价。在评估的517项研究中，纳入了33项研究：26项同行评议研究和7项灰色文献。尽管不同类型的研究满足不同的标准，但所有9项布拉德福德山标准都得到了满足。例如，模型研究符合一致性和具体性标准，时间序列分析证明了时间性和实验标准，通过将研究结果与关于税收和负担能力的更广泛文献进行比较，符合类比标准。总体而言，符合Bradford Hill因果关系标准。很少有证据表明最低酒精价格与消费或随后的危害无关。然而，证据的总体质量参差不齐，很大一部分证据库是由少数研究小组制作的，许多估计或预测的定量不确定性往往在学术文献之外传达得很差。尽管如此，基于价格的酒精政策干预措施，如MUP，可能会减少酒精消费，酒精相关的发病率和死亡率。
To assess the evidence for price-based alcohol policy interventions to determine whether minimum unit pricing (MUP) is likely to be effective. Systematic review and assessment of studies according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, against the Bradford Hill criteria for causality. Three electronic databases were searched from inception to February 2017. Additional articles were found through hand searching and grey literature searches. We included any study design that reported on the effect of price-based interventions on alcohol consumption or alcohol-related morbidity, mortality and wider harms. Studies reporting on the effects of taxation or affordability and studies that only investigated price elasticity of demand were beyond the scope of this review. Studies with any conflict of interest were excluded. All studies were appraised for methodological quality. Of 517 studies assessed, 33 studies were included: 26 peer-reviewed research studies and seven from the grey literature. All nine of the Bradford Hill criteria were met, although different types of study satisfied different criteria. For example, modelling studies complied with the consistency and specificity criteria, time series analyses demonstrated the temporality and experiment criteria, and the analogy criterion was fulfilled by comparing the findings with the wider literature on taxation and affordability. Overall, the Bradford Hill criteria for causality were satisfied. There was very little evidence that minimum alcohol prices are not associated with consumption or subsequent harms. However the overall quality of the evidence was variable, a large proportion of the evidence base has been produced by a small number of research teams, and the quantitative uncertainty in many estimates or forecasts is often poorly communicated outside the academic literature. Nonetheless, price-based alcohol policy interventions such as MUP are likely to reduce alcohol consumption, alcohol-related morbidity and mortality.