Informational Cascades and Software Adoption on the Internet: An Empirical Investigation
Informational Cascades and Software Adoption on the Internet: An Empirical Investigation
复制标题
DOI：
10.2307/20650277
复制
发表时间：
2008-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wenjing Duan;B. Gu;Andrew Whinston
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wenjing Duan;B. Gu;Andrew Whinston
在线用户通常需要在没有关于产品价值的准确信息的情况下做出采用决策。当一个在线用户观察到其他人的行为后，最好是遵循前一个人的收养决定，而不考虑他自己的信息时，就会发生信息级联。信息级联往往是理性的个人决策，但它可能会导致采用劣质产品。由于可以很容易地获得关于其他用户选择的信息，互联网为信息级联提供了一个理想的环境。在本文中，我们实证研究的背景下，在线软件采用的信息级联。我们发现用户在采用软件产品的行为是一致的信息级联文献的预测。我们的研究结果表明，在线用户的软件产品的选择表现出明显的跳跃和下降的变化，下载排名，预测的信息级联理论。此外，我们发现用户评论对用户采用最受欢迎的产品没有影响，而对采用排名较低的产品有越来越积极的影响。在控制了网络效应、口碑效应和产品扩散等其他解释后，这种现象仍然存在。我们的研究结果验证了信息级联作为一个重要的驱动力，在互联网上的决策。这一发现还解释了先前研究中关于在线用户评论对产品销售影响的混合结果。我们发现，混合的结果可能是由于信息级联的调节作用。
Online users often need to make adoption decisions without accurate information about the product values. An informational cascade occurs when it is optimal for an online user, having observed others' actions, to follow the adoption decision of the preceding individual without regard to his own information. Informational cascades are often rational for individual decision making; however, it may lead to adoption of inferior products. With easy availability of information about other users' choices, the Internet offers an ideal environment for informational cascades. In this paper, we empirically examine informational cascades in the context of online software adoption. We find user behavior in adopting software products is consistent with the predictions of the informational cascades literature. Our results demonstrate that online users' choices of software products exhibit distinct jumps and drops with changes in download ranking, as predicted by informational cascades theory. Furthermore, we find that user reviews have no impact on user adoption of the most popular product, while having an increasingly positive impact on the adoption of lower ranking products. The phenomenon persists after controlling for alternative explanations such as network effects, word-of-mouth effects, and product diffusion. Our results validate informational cascades as an important driver for decision making on the Internet. The finding also offers an explanation for the mixed results reported in prior studies with regard to the influence of online user reviews on product sales. We show that the mixed results could be due to the moderating effect of informational cascades.