Are Activity Patterns Stable or Variable? Analysis of Three-Year Panel Data
Are Activity Patterns Stable or Variable? Analysis of Three-Year Panel Data
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DOI：
10.1177/0361198118773557
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Vortisch, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hilgert, Tim;von Behren, Sascha;Vortisch, Peter
工作和学校等职业和强制性活动塑造了个人的活动模式，并对旅行需求产生重大影响。了解这些惯例的稳定性和可变性，可以加强旅行需求建模和预测。需要从纵向的角度来研究这些方面。在这项研究中，一个样本的人的活动模式进行了比较，在连续两年的一个星期。它分析了一个人的活动模式是否每年都有变化，变化到什么程度，以及如何测量这种变化和稳定性。它被认为是社会人口因素和生活事件是否确定每周活动模式的稳定性。这项研究是基于代表性的小组调查，德国流动性小组。同一受访者在不同年份的每周活动模式进行评估，使用两种方法来衡量稳定性和可变性。调查对象根据其活动模式的变化程度分为三组。逻辑回归模型也被用来确定社会经济和人口统计学协变量的相似性，每周的活动模式。结果显示，大约三分之一的样本有相同或非常相似的每周活动模式，在两年的审查。一个人的职业状况是一个很好的预测活动模式的可变性。此外，经历职业地位变化的人很可能在其活动模式上表现出更大的可变性。
Routines and mandatory activities, such as work and school, shape the activity patterns of individuals and strongly influence travel demand. Knowledge about stability and variability of these routines could strengthen travel demand modelling and forecasting. A longitudinal perspective is required to investigate these aspects. In this study, the activity patterns of a sample of people is compared for one week in two successive years. It is analyzed whether the activity patterns of a given person vary from year to year, to what degree, and how this variability and stability can be measured. It is considered whether socio-demographic factors and life events determine stability in weekly activity patterns. The study is based on the representative panel survey, German Mobility Panel. The weekly activity patterns of the same respondents in different years is assessed, using two methods to measure stability and variability. The survey respondents are clustered into three groups according to the degree of variability in their activity patterns. A logistic regression model is also used to identify socio-economic and demographic covariates for similarity in weekly activity patterns. Results show that about one-third of the sample had the same or very similar weekly activity patterns in the two years examined. A person's occupation status is a good predictor for the variability of activity patterns. Moreover, persons undergoing a change in occupation status are quite likely to show a greater variability in their activity patterns.