Population Aging, Health Care, and Fiscal Policy Reform: The Challenges for Japan
Population Aging, Health Care, and Fiscal Policy Reform: The Challenges for Japan
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人口老龄化、医疗保健和财政政策改革：日本面临的挑战
DOI：
10.1111/sjoe.12280
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yamada Tomoaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hsu Minchung;Yamada Tomoaki
本文构建了一个基于一般均衡生命周期模型的过渡分析来研究老龄化的影响，并评估了旨在减少老龄化负面影响的各种政策选择。特别是，我们分析了保险福利和税收融资工具的改革，由于日本紧张的财政状况，这些改革最近在日本引起了大量关注和辩论。我们表明，尽管潜在的改革提高了后代的福利，但由于当前人口的福利成本很高，因此这些改革的政治实施是困难的。我们的分析表明，渐进式改革与代际再分配在政治上比立即改革更具可实施性。
We construct a transition analysis based on a general equilibrium life‐cycle model to investigate the effects of aging, and we evaluate various policy alternatives designed to lessen the negative influence of aging. In particular, we analyze reforms of insurance benefits and tax financing tools that were recently the focus of a great amount of attention and debate in Japan because of the tense financial situation there. We show that although the potential reforms improve the welfare of future generations, the political implementation of such reforms is difficult because of the large welfare costs for the current population. Our analysis suggests that a gradual reform with an intergenerational redistribution will be more politically implementable than an immediate reform.