Levels and causes of adult mortality in rural South Africa:: the impact of AIDS
Levels and causes of adult mortality in rural South Africa:: the impact of AIDS
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DOI：
10.1097/00002030-200403050-00011
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发表时间：
2004-03-05
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Timæus, IM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hosegood, V;Timæus, IM
目的：量化艾滋病对南非农村地区成人死亡率的影响。设计：对夸祖鲁纳塔尔省北部农村地区人口进行人口统计监测。方法：统计了 2000 年的人口和所有成人死亡人数 (n = 1021)。我们对死者的照顾者进行了口头尸检访谈，以确定成人死亡的原因。对 109 名具有可找到医院记录的个体进行了口头尸检诊断的验证研究。死亡率和其他死亡率指标均采用直接计算和孤儿法间接估算。结果：研究区的死亡率在20世纪90年代后期急剧上升。到 2000 年，15 岁至 60 岁之间的女性死亡概率为 58%，男性为 75%。艾滋病，无论是否患有结核病，都是成年期死亡的主要原因（48%）。 15-44 岁男性死亡的 20% 是由道路交通事故或暴力造成的伤害造成的。在 60 岁或以上年龄组中，非传染性疾病分别占女性和男性死亡人数的 76% 和 71%。 结论：该人群的成人死亡率突然大幅上升。这可以用艾滋病死亡来解释。非传染性疾病和（男性）伤害造成的死亡率也很高。 20 世纪 90 年代末，夸祖鲁纳塔尔省农村地区的产前艾滋病毒血清阳性率持续上升，在该地区的一些诊所中达到了 40%。除非采取有效的治疗干预措施，否则成人死亡率将继续上升。 (C) 2004 年利平科特·威廉姆斯·威尔金斯。
Objective: To quantify the contribution that AIDS makes to adult mortality in rural South Africa.Design: Demographic surveillance of the population in a rural area of northern KwaZulu Natal province.Methods: The population and all adult deaths (n = 1021) in 2000 were enumerated. We conducted verbal autopsy interviews with the caregivers of those who died to identify the causes of adult deaths. A validation study of the verbal autopsy diagnoses was conducted on 109 individuals with hospital notes that could be located. Death rates and other mortality indices are both calculated directly and estimated indirectly by the orphanhood method.Results: Mortality in the study area rose sharply in the late-1990s. By 2000 the probability of dying between ages 15 and 60 was 58% for women and 75% for men. AIDS, with or without tuberculosis, is the leading cause of death in adulthood (48%). Injuries, mostly resulting from road traffic accidents or violence, cause 20% of deaths of men aged 15-44 years. In the age group 60 years or more, non-communicable diseases account for 76 and 71% of deaths of women and men respectively.Conclusions: This population has experienced a sudden and massive rise in adult mortality. This can be accounted for by AIDS deaths. Mortality from non-communicable disease and (among men) injuries is also high. Antenatal HIV seroprevalence continued to rise in rural KwaZulu Natal in the late 1990s, reaching 40% in some clinics in this area. Adult mortality will continue to rise unless effective treatment interventions are introduced. (C) 2004 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.