Climate Change and Marine Fish Distributions: Forecasting from Historical Analogy
Climate Change and Marine Fish Distributions: Forecasting from Historical Analogy
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气候变化和海洋鱼类分布：历史类比预测
DOI：
10.1577/1548-8659(1993)122
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发表时间：
1993
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
S. Murawski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Murawski
摘要对西北大西洋(1967-今)标准化底拖网调查中抽样的36种鱼类和鱿鱼进行分析，揭示了与水温季节和年度变化有关的一系列分布响应。该物种的平均和最大出现纬度与春季和秋季拖网调查的平均表层和底层水温以及相对丰度指数进行了回归。从春季和秋季的调查数据中，36种植物中有17种得到了显著的回归模型(P≤0.05)。水温的变化对解释两个季节36个物种中的12个物种的平均发生纬度的变化具有重要意义。中上层物种的最大纬度分布对年际水温差异作出响应，包括大西洋鲱鱼和大西洋鲱鱼。平均气温每升高1℃，这些物种的加权平均渔获量就向极地移动0.5-0.8度纬度.
Abstract Analyses of 36 fish and squid species sampled in standardized bottom-trawl surveys of the northwest Atlantic Ocean (1967–present) revealed a continuum of distributional responses associated with seasonal and annual variations in water temperature. Mean and maximum latitude of occurrence of the species were regressed against average surface- and bottom-water temperatures and indices of relative abundance from spring and autumn trawl surveys. Significant (P ≤ 0.05) regression models were fitted for 17 of 36 species from spring and fall survey data. Variations in water temperature were significant in explaining changes in mean latitude of occurrence for 12 of 36 species in both seasons. Maximum latitude distribution responses to interannual differences in water temperatures occurred for pelagic species, including Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus and Atlantic herring Clupea harengus. Weighted mean catches of these species shifted poleward by 0.5–0.8 degree of latitude for each 1°C increase in avera...