Reversing the Causal Arrow: The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions in the 2000-2004 U.S. Presidential Election Cycle
Reversing the Causal Arrow: The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions in the 2000-2004 U.S. Presidential Election Cycle
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DOI：
10.1017/s0022381610000654
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发表时间：
2010-10-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Pickup, Mark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Evans, Geoffrey;Pickup, Mark
许多经济投票模型假设，个体选民对现任者的反应受到他们对宏观经济表现的看法的强烈影响。然而，经济认知和政治偏好之间的因果关系方向尚不清楚：经济观念可能是现任者支持的结果，而不是对它的影响。我们通过研究回顾性的经济观念和几种政治偏好措施--批准，党派，在2000 - 2002-2004年的美国总统选举周期中，使用ANES 2000-2002-2004面板研究来估计面板数据的安德森和Hsiao估计的结构方程模型扩展。我们的研究结果证实，传统的智慧歪曲了回顾性的经济观念和现任党派之间的关系：经济观念是一致的，强烈的政治偏好的条件。个人的经济观念受到其政治偏好的影响，而不是相反。
Many economic voting models assume that individual voters' reactions to incumbents are strongly conditioned by their perceptions of the performance of the macroeconomy. However, the direction of causality between economic perceptions and political preferences is unclear: economic perceptions can be a consequence of incumbent support rather than an influence on it. We develop the latter thesis by examining the dynamic relationship between retrospective economic perceptions and several measures of political preferences-approval, partisanship, and vote-in the 2000-2004 U.S. presidential election cycle using the ANES 2000-2002-2004 panel study to estimate structural equation model extensions of the Anderson and Hsiao estimator for panel data. Our findings confirm that the conventional wisdom misrepresents the relationship between retrospective economic perceptions and incumbent partisanship: economic perceptions are consistently and robustly conditioned by political preferences. Individuals' economic perceptions are influenced by their political preferences rather than vice versa.