The energy sector in Scotland’s future
The energy sector in Scotland’s future
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苏格兰未来的能源行业
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Hughes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Hughes
能源行业占苏格兰GDP的15%至20%。它是高度资本密集型的，维持生产，尤其是石油和天然气的生产，将在未来5至10年吸收很大一部分商业投资。该行业收入的波动性意味着，与作为英国一部分的苏格兰相比，独立的苏格兰在宏观经济管理方面将面临更大的困难。试图在没有一个补偿财政转移的体系的情况下将其汇率固定在英镑或欧元上，将把调整的负担放在要素流动性和收入上。苏格兰可以利用主权财富基金作为稳定工具，但它一开始的处境比挪威糟糕得多，需要减少目前的政府支出来建立该基金。向英国其他地区出口天然气和电力的前景取决于进入市场的条件。一体化的英国市场似乎不太可能以目前的形式生存下来。大量出口将继续，但净贸易条件可能不会像现在这样对苏格兰有利。
The energy sector accounts for 15–20 per cent of Scottish GDP. It is highly capital-intensive and maintaining production, especially of oil and gas, will absorb a large share of business investment over the next 5–10 years. The volatility of revenues from the sector means that an independent Scotland will face much greater difficulties in macro-economic management than as part of the UK. Attempting to fix its exchange rate, either to the pound sterling or the euro, without a system of compensating fiscal transfers will put the burden of adjustment on factor mobility and incomes. Scotland could use a sovereign wealth fund as a stabilizing instrument, but it is starting from a much worse position than Norway and would need to reduce current government spending to build up the fund. The prospects for exporting gas and electricity to the rest of the UK depend upon the terms of access to markets. It seems unlikely that integrated Great Britain markets will survive in their current form. Large exports will continue but the net terms of trade will probably be less favourable to Scotland than at present.