Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources.
Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources.
复制标题
人类判断与生态资源管理的定量模型。
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
S. Ellner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Holden;S. Ellner
尽管在自然资源管理的量化方法方面取得了重大进展，但在管理生态种群的实际实践中使用这些工具一直存在阻力。给定一个管理系统和一组假设，转化为一个模型，优化方法可以用来解决最具成本效益的管理措施。然而，当基本假设得不到满足时，这种方法可能会导致损害环境和经济的决定。根据过去的经验和判断制定决策的管理者，没有数学模型的帮助，可以潜在地了解系统并制定灵活的管理策略。然而，这些战略往往是基于主观标准和同样无效的，往往是未说明的假设。鉴于这两种方法的缺点，目前还不清楚是否简单的定量模型改善环境决策专家的意见。在这项研究中，我们探讨如何以及学生，利用他们的经验和判断，管理模拟渔业种群在网上电脑游戏，并比较他们的管理成果的性能模型为基础的决策。我们考虑使用四种不同的定量模型生成的收获决策：（1）用于生成游戏中观察到的模拟种群动态的模型，所有参数的值均已知（作为对照），（2）相同的模型，但是具有必须在游戏期间从观察到的数据估计的未知参数值，（3）结构上不同于用于模拟人口动态的模型，以及（4）忽略年龄结构的模型。在案例1-3中，人类的平均表现比模型差得多，但在少数情况下，模型产生的结果比学生根据经验和判断做出决定的结果更差。当模型忽略年龄结构时，他们产生了表现不佳的管理决策，但在66%的情况下，仍然优于使用经验和判断的学生。
Despite major advances in quantitative approaches to natural resource management, there has been resistance to using these tools in the actual practice of managing ecological populations. Given a managed system and a set of assumptions, translated into a model, optimization methods can be used to solve for the most cost-effective management actions. However, when the underlying assumptions are not met, such methods can potentially lead to decisions that harm the environment and economy. Managers who develop decisions based on past experience and judgment, without the aid of mathematical models, can potentially learn about the system and develop flexible management strategies. However, these strategies are often based on subjective criteria and equally invalid and often unstated assumptions. Given the drawbacks of both methods, it is unclear whether simple quantitative models improve environmental decision making over expert opinion. In this study, we explore how well students, using their experience and judgment, manage simulated fishery populations in an online computer game and compare their management outcomes to the performance of model-based decisions. We consider harvest decisions generated using four different quantitative models: (1) the model used to produce the simulated population dynamics observed in the game, with the values of all parameters known (as a control), (2) the same model, but with unknown parameter values that must be estimated during the game from observed data, (3) models that are structurally different from those used to simulate the population dynamics, and (4) a model that ignores age structure. Humans on average performed much worse than the models in cases 1-3, but in a small minority of scenarios, models produced worse outcomes than those resulting from students making decisions based on experience and judgment. When the models ignored age structure, they generated poorly performing management decisions, but still outperformed students using experience and judgment 66% of the time.
DOI：
10.3934/mbe.2008.5.219
发表时间：
2008-03
期刊：
Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
影响因子：
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作者：
E. Asano;L. Gross;S. Lenhart;L. Real
通讯作者：
E. Asano;L. Gross;S. Lenhart;L. Real