The importance of the terrestrial weathering feedback for multimillennial coral reef habitat recovery
The importance of the terrestrial weathering feedback for multimillennial coral reef habitat recovery
复制标题
陆地风化反馈对于千年珊瑚礁栖息地恢复的重要性
DOI：
10.1029/2011gb004098
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
E. Wiebe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Meissner;B. Mcneil;M. Eby;E. Wiebe
现代珊瑚礁具有明确的光照、海表温度（SST）和海水文石饱和状态（Ωarag）环境包络。我们研究了全球珊瑚礁栖息地在多千年时间尺度上的变化，关于SST和Ωaragusing气候模型，包括一个三维海洋环流模型，一个完全耦合的碳循环，和六个不同的参数化大陆风化（UVic地球系统气候模型）。该模型的排放情景范围从1，000 Pg C到5，000 Pg C。我们发现，长期气候变化的响应与未来几个世纪二氧化碳排放的速度无关。在千年的时间尺度上，即使是低排放情景，风化反馈也会带来很大的不确定性。基于大气CO2的风化参数化仅显示与依赖于温度的风化参数化不同的瞬态响应。虽然SST和Ωaragstay全球不利于珊瑚礁千年为我们的高排放情景的环境条件，一些风化参数化诱导珊瑚礁栖息地接近完全恢复到目前的条件后，10,000年，而其他导致珊瑚礁栖息地崩溃在我们的模拟。我们发现，在海洋表面温度（SST）的多年期响应大幅滞后的文石饱和度恢复在所有配置。这意味着，如果珊瑚可以通过选择耐热物种来适应数千年的海洋温度，那么珊瑚礁的长期恢复前景会更好，因为Ωarag比SST恢复得更快。
Modern‐day coral reefs have well defined environmental envelopes for light, sea surface temperature (SST) and seawater aragonite saturation state (Ωarag). We examine the changes in global coral reef habitat on multimillennial timescales with regard to SST and Ωaragusing a climate model including a three‐dimensional ocean general circulation model, a fully coupled carbon cycle, and six different parameterizations for continental weathering (the UVic Earth System Climate Model). The model is forced with emission scenarios ranging from 1,000 Pg C to 5,000 Pg C total emissions. We find that the long‐term climate change response is independent of the rate at which CO2 is emitted over the next few centuries. On millennial timescales, the weathering feedback introduces a significant uncertainty even for low emission scenarios. Weathering parameterizations based on atmospheric CO2 only display a different transient response than weathering parameterizations that are dependent on temperature. Although environmental conditions for SST and Ωaragstay globally hostile for coral reefs for millennia for our high emission scenarios, some weathering parameterizations induce a near‐complete recovery of coral reef habitat to current conditions after 10,000 years, while others result in a collapse of coral reef habitat throughout our simulations. We find that the multimillennial response in sea surface temperature (SST) substantially lags the aragonite saturation recovery in all configurations. This implies that if corals can naturally adapt over millennia by selecting thermally tolerant species to match warmer ocean temperatures, prospects for long‐term recovery of coral reefs are better since Ωarag recovers more quickly than SST.