Conditional survival of patients with the four major histologic subgroups of lung cancer in Denmark
Conditional survival of patients with the four major histologic subgroups of lung cancer in Denmark
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DOI：
10.1200/jco.2003.04.521
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发表时间：
2003-08-15
影响因子：
45.3
通讯作者：
Olsen, JH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Skuladottir, H;Olsen, JH
目的：肺癌患者的生存概率通常基于诊断时评估的疾病程度。令人沮丧的5年生存率经常被报道(10%)，而没有考虑随着诊断时间的推移生存概率的变化。患者和方法：通过性别、年龄、疾病范围和组织学来评估从1943年到1997年丹麦被诊断为肺癌的患者的条件生存估计。结果：生存年限每增加1年，生存概率由男性的33%和女性的36%增加到男性的60%和女性的67%。年龄在49岁以下的患者第一年存活的5年生存概率为33%，第五年后增加到81%。对60至69岁患者的相应估计分别为23%和52%。局限性和区域性疾病患者第一年的条件生存率差异很大(分别为29%和10%)，但5年后随着时间的推移条件生存率趋于一致(分别为52%和47%)。鳞状细胞癌、腺癌和大细胞癌患者的条件生存率相似，但小细胞癌患者的条件生存率明显低于大细胞癌患者。结论：对于生存1年以上的患者，条件生存概率比传统的观察生存率提供了更准确的生存估计。
Purpose : The survival probability of patients with lung cancer is usually based on the extent of disease as assessed at the time of diagnosis. The discouraging 5-year survival is often reported (< 10%) without taking into account changes in the survival probability as time advances from diagnosis.Patients and Methods: Conditional survival estimates by sex, age, extent of disease, and histology were estimated for patients diagnosed with lung cancer in Denmark from 1943 to 1997. Survival probabilities were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and cumulative survival estimates were used to derive conditional survival estimates.Results: For every additional year survived, the probability of surviving the next 5 years increases from 33% (men) and 36% (women) after the first year, to 60% (men) and 67% (women) who have survived 5 years. The 5-year survival probability of patients younger than 49 years who had survived the first year was 33%, and increased to 81% after the fifth year. Corresponding estimates for 60- to 69-year-old patients were 23% and 52%. The conditional survival differed greatly among patients with localized and regional disease (29% and 10%, respectively) in the first year, but converged with time (52% and 47%, respectively) after 5 years. The conditional survival is similar in patients with squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma, and large-cell carcinoma, but is markedly lower in patients with small-cell carcinoma.Conclusion: For patients who have survived more than 1 year, the conditional survival probability provides a more accurate estimate of survival as compared with the conventional observed survival rates.