A framework for assessing uncertainty of drinking water quality in distribution networks with application to monochloramine decay
A framework for assessing uncertainty of drinking water quality in distribution networks with application to monochloramine decay
复制标题
应用于一氯胺衰变的供水管网饮用水质量不确定性评估框架
DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137056
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Sela, Lina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Frankel, Matthew;Katz, Lynn E.;Kinney, Kerry;Werth, Charles J.;Zigler, Corwin;Sela, Lina
为了分析配水系统（WDS）中水质条件的变化，例如消毒剂副产品的形成，余氯和生物膜的生长，水务公司可以使用耦合的水力和化学模型。基于模型的操作决策由于模型输入参数的不确定性而变得复杂，这些不确定性通过模型传播，从而导致不确定的模型预测。以往的工作都集中在进行各种水质反应和水力因素的相互作用的输入参数的敏感性分析，但忽略了水力和化学参数的不确定性的具体贡献。在这项工作中，提出了一个框架，用于评估水质模型中的水力和化学不确定性，并证明了使用一氯胺衰减WDS重力和抽水系统提供。在第一步中，进行灵敏度分析，以确定影响和非影响的化学参数，这些参数决定了一氯胺的衰减速率。在第二步中，蒙特卡洛模拟用于探索水力和化学参数的不确定性的单独和组合影响。结果表明，在建模一氯胺浓度的不确定性增加与水的年龄和更高的反应速率，在一天的过程中变化，并在很大程度上取决于水力变异性，强调需要考虑输入的不确定性。在这项工作中开发的计算工具可以扩展到其他反应机制，水质参数，并分配系统的情况下，特定的条件，并用于评估系统范围内的不确定性对水质的影响。
To analyze changes in water quality conditions in water distribution systems (WDS), such as disinfectant byproduct formation, chlorine residual, and biofilm growth, water utilities can use coupled hydraulic and chemical models. Model-based operational decisions are complicated by uncertainties in model input parameters, which propagate through the model resulting in uncertain model predictions. Previous works have focused on conducting sensitivity analyses of input parameters in various water quality reactions and the interactions with hydraulic factors, but have overlooked the specific contribution of hydraulic and chemical parameter uncertainty. In this work, a framework for assessing the hydraulic and chemical uncertainty in water quality models is presented and demonstrated using monochloramine decay in WDSs supplied by gravity and pumping systems. In the first step, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the influential and non-influential chemical parameters which govern the rate of monochloramine decay. In the second step, Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the individual and combined effects of uncertainty in hydraulic and chemical parameters. Results show that uncertainty in modeled monochloramine concentration increases with water age and higher reaction rates, varies throughout the course of a day, and heavily depends on hydraulic variability, emphasizing the need to account for input uncertainty. The computational tool developed in this work can be extended to other reaction mechanisms, water quality parameters, and distribution systems for case-specific conditions, and used to evaluate system-wide effects of uncertainty on water quality.