Pulling the Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?
Pulling the Plug: Can There Be a Deal with China on Korean Unification?
复制标题
终止朝鲜半岛统一：能否与中国达成协议？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Andrew H. Kydd
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Andrew H. Kydd
朝鲜是一个等待失败的国家。它将可怕的匮乏强加给自己的公民，并对其邻国和美国构成严重的安全威胁。20年来，韩国、美国和中国一直在与朝鲜谈判，希望促使朝鲜放弃核武器计划，与韩国和解，并进行经济改革。这些谈判未能实现其目标，基本上已被放弃。朝鲜现在是一个自豪的核武器国家，既蔑视其南方的对手，也蔑视其北方的中国赞助人。朝鲜年轻的新领导人金正恩（Kim Jong-un）没有表现出进行经济改革或向韩国开放的迹象。作为回应，韩国和美国正式接受了统一的目标，似乎已经蹲下来等待朝鲜崩溃。然而，除非中国愿意，否则统一不会发生，而现在，北京不愿意。对中国来说，统一是一个复杂的问题。它将解决核问题以及绝望的朝鲜人寻求逃往或通过中国所造成的难民问题，并从拥有一个比破产的朝鲜更繁荣的邻国中带来长期的经济利益。然而，它有两个主要缺点。首先，如果统一之前朝鲜彻底崩溃，可能会在中国内部产生传染效应，产生反对该政权的政治动员。
North Korea is a failed state waiting to happen. It imposes horrific privations on its own citizens as well as serious security threats on its neighbors and the United States. For twenty years, South Korea, the United States, and China negotiated with North Korea in hopes of inducing it to abandon its nuclear weapons program, reconcile with South Korea, and reform its economy. These negotiations failed to achieve their objectives and have been largely abandoned. North Korea is now a proud nuclear weapons state, defying both its adversaries to the south and its Chinese patrons to the north. Its young new leader, Kim Jong-un, shows no sign of undertaking economic reforms or opening to the south. In response, South Korea and the United States have formally adopted the goal of unification, and have seemingly hunkered down to await a North Korean collapse. Unification, however, is not going to happen unless China wants it to, and right now, Beijing does not. For China, unification is a mixed bag. It would solve the nuclear issue as well as the refugee problem posed by desperate North Koreans seeking to escape to or through China, and bring long-term economic benefits from having a more prosperous neighbor than the bankrupt DPRK. However, it comes with two major drawbacks. The first is that if unification is preceded by the outright collapse of North Korea, there could be a contagion effect within China, generating political mobilization against the regime.