The East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream and Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
The East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream and Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
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DOI：
10.1029/2020gl088851
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发表时间：
2020-07
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Wei Zhang;G. Villarini;G. Vecchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wei Zhang;G. Villarini;G. Vecchi
大西洋热带气旋(TC)可能会造成重大的社会和经济影响，2019年的S·多里安提醒我们这些风暴的破坏性。几十年来对大西洋热带气旋活动的理解和预测的努力提高了季节性预报技巧，但仍然存在很大的不确定性，部分原因是对热带气旋变率的驱动因素了解不完全。根据1980年至2018年的观测资料，我们确定了7-10月东亚副热带急流与8-11月大西洋热带气旋(风速≥34节)和飓风(风速≥节)的频率之间的关系。这种强烈的联系与东亚夏季风对东亚和热带太平洋至北大西洋的静止Rossby波列的影响有关，从而导致大西洋主要发展区(80-20°W，10-20°N)的垂直风切变发生变化。
Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause significant societal and economic impacts, as 2019's Dorian serves to remind us of these storms' destructiveness. Decades of effort to understand and predict Atlantic TC activity have improved seasonal forecast skill, but large uncertainties still remain, in part due to an incomplete understanding of the drivers of TC variability. Here we identify an association between the East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream (EASJ) during July–October and the frequency of Atlantic TCs (wind speed ≥34 knot) and hurricanes (wind speed ≥64 knot) during August–November based on observations for 1980–2018. This strong association is tied to the impacts of EASJ on a stationary Rossby wave train emanating from East Asia and the tropical Pacific to the North Atlantic, leading to changes in vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Main Development Region (80–20°W, 10–20°N).