Estimation of incidences of infectious diseases based on antibody measurements
Estimation of incidences of infectious diseases based on antibody measurements
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.3592
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发表时间：
2009-06-30
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Teunis, P. F. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Simonsen, J.;Molbak, K.;Teunis, P. F. M.
由于不确定性，很难甚至不可能根据向常规公共卫生监测机构通报的病例确定某一疾病的发病率。对于通常以温和形式存在的疾病尤其如此，例如由食源性细菌感染引起的腹泻。本研究提出了一种贝叶斯方法，通过使用抗沙门氏菌的血清抗体的测量，从横断面研究中获得发病率估计。通过将这些测量值与来自感染个体的随访研究的抗体测量值进行比较，可以估计横断面研究中每个个体自上次感染以来的时间。然后将这些时间估计值转换为发生率估计值。丹麦沙门氏菌感染的发病率的信息是通过使用血液样本从1780人。估计发病率约为每人每年0.094例感染。这一数字相当于丹麦国家监测系统捕获的每例培养确诊病例中有325例感染。我们提出了一种新的方法，称为血清发病率，有潜力比较不同人群，国家和时间之间的公共卫生监测的敏感性。版权所有（C）2009约翰威利父子有限公司
Owing to underascertainment it is difficult if not impossible to determine the incidence of a given disease based on cases notified to routine public health surveillance. This is especially true for diseases that are often present in mild forms as for example diarrhoea caused by foodborne bacterial infections. This study presents a Bayesian approach for obtaining incidence estimates by use of measurements of serum antibodies against Salmonella from a cross-sectional study. By comparing these measurements with antibody measurements from a follow-up study of infected individuals it was possible to estimate the time since last infection for each individual in the cross-sectional study. These time estimates were then converted into incidence estimates. Information about the incidence of Salmonella infections in Denmark was obtained by using blood samples from 1780 persons. The estimated incidence was about 0.094 infections per person year. This number corresponds to 325 infections per culture-confirmed case captured in the Danish national surveillance system. We present a novel approach, termed as seroincidence, that has potentials to compare the sensitivity of public health surveillance between different populations, countries and over time. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.