CLINICAL VERSUS ACTUARIAL JUDGMENT
CLINICAL VERSUS ACTUARIAL JUDGMENT
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DOI：
10.1126/science.2648573
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发表时间：
1989-03-31
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
MEEHL, PE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
DAWES, RM;FAUST, D;MEEHL, PE
专家经常被咨询来诊断和预测人类行为;最佳的治疗和计划往往取决于顾问的判断准确性。顾问可能依赖于两种截然不同的决策方法之一-临床和精算方法。比较这两种方法的研究表明，精算方法是优越的上级。精算方法的准确性更高的因素，阻力的科学研究结果的来源，以及增加对精算方法的依赖的好处进行了讨论。
Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making—the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater accuracy of actuarial methods, sources of resistance to the scientific findings, and the benefits of increased reliance on actuarial approaches are discussed.