Heterogeneity in the reaction of traffic flows to road pricing: a synthetic control approach applied to Milan
Heterogeneity in the reaction of traffic flows to road pricing: a synthetic control approach applied to Milan
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交通流量对道路定价反应的异质性：应用于米兰的综合控制方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Percoco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Percoco
地方政府越来越多地采用道路定价计划来遏制城市的污染和拥堵。尽管很受欢迎，但很少有实证研究试图估计此类干预措施的有效性。本文的目的是通过综合控制方法来评估道路定价对交通流的影响，该方法允许处理效果的广泛异质性。通过使用 2008 年至 2012 年间进入米兰市中心的 75 种车辆的大样本，我们评估了 2012 年 1 月针对 20 种车辆实施的道路收费计划的执行情况。我们发现交通流量的反应存在很大差异，并且在对轿车和某些类型的商用车定价后，车辆减少方面产生了显着影响。有趣且令人惊讶的是，对于禁止进入市中心的车辆没有检测到任何影响。
Local governments are increasingly adopting road pricing schemes to curb pollution and congestion in the cities. Despite its popularity, few empirical studies have made an attempt to estimate the effectiveness of such interventions. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of road pricing on traffic flows by means of a synthetic control approach which allows for a wide heterogeneity of treatment effects. By using a large sample of 75 types of vehicles entering the centre of Milan between 2008 and 2012, we evaluate the enforcement of the road pricing scheme occurred in January 2012 across 20 types of vehicles. We have found a large variation in the reaction of traffic flows and a significant effect in terms of vehicles reduction after pricing for cars and for some types of commercial vehicles. Interestingly and surprisingly, no effect is detected for vehicles whose access in the city centre was forbidden.