Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content
Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0702872104
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发表时间：
2007-09-25
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Wehner, M. F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Santer, B. D.;Mears, C.;Wehner, M. F.
卫星专用传感器微波成像仪（SSM/I）提供的数据表明，自1988年以来，海洋上空的大气总湿度每十年增加0.41千克/平方米。目前气候模式的结果表明，这种量级的水汽增加不能仅仅用气候噪音来解释。在一个正式的检测和归因分析使用的汇总结果从22个不同的气候模式，模拟的“指纹”模式的气候变化引起的水汽是可识别的SSM/I数据的统计置信度高。实验中，强迫因素是不同的个别表明，这种指纹“匹配”主要是由于人类造成的温室气体的增加，而不是太阳强迫或恢复皮纳图博火山喷发。我们的研究结果提供了初步的证据，在地球大气中的水分含量的一个新兴的人为信号。
Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/m(2) per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint "match" is primarily due to human caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere.