Upscale Error Growth in a High-Resolution Simulation of a Summertime Weather Event over Europe*
Upscale Error Growth in a High-Resolution Simulation of a Summertime Weather Event over Europe*
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DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-14-00140.1
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发表时间：
2015-02
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
T. Selz;G. Craig
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Selz;G. Craig
AbstractThe增长的小振幅，空间不相关的扰动已经研究了在2007年夏季的天气预报的4天期间，使用一个大的域覆盖欧洲和东大西洋和明确解决深对流。误差增长遵循Zhang等人的三阶段概念模型，在所有尺度上具有快速的初始生长（e-折叠时间约0.5小时），在约20小时内松弛到大尺度扰动的缓慢生长（e-折叠时间12小时）。最初的增长仅限于沉淀区域，在条件不稳定性大的地方增长速度更快。在这些地区的增长饱和3-10小时内，持续时间最长的降水率是大的。扰动能量的谱分解表明，降水区的快速增长主要投射到对流层的各个尺度上。
AbstractThe growth of small-amplitude, spatially uncorrelated perturbations has been studied in a weather forecast of a 4-day period in the summer of 2007, using a large domain covering Europe and the eastern Atlantic and with explicitly resolved deep convection. The error growth follows the three-stage conceptual model of Zhang et al., with rapid initial growth (e-folding time about 0.5 h) on all scales, relaxing over about 20 h to a slow growth of the large-scale perturbations (e-folding time 12 h). The initial growth was confined to precipitating regions, with a faster growth rate where conditional instability was large. Growth in these regions saturated within 3–10 h, continuing for the longest where the precipitation rate was large. While the initial growth was mainly in the divergent part of the flow, the eventual slow growth on large scales was more in the rotational component.Spectral decomposition of the disturbance energy showed that the rapid growth in precipitating regions projected onto all F...