Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Medium Scale for Rainfall-Induced Earthflows: Catakli Catchment Area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey)
Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Medium Scale for Rainfall-Induced Earthflows: Catakli Catchment Area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey)
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降雨引起的地球流的中等规模概率风险评估：Catakli 流域区域（土耳其 Rize 的 Cayeli）
DOI：
10.1155/2011/280431
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Gokceoglu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. A. Nefeslioglu;C. Gokceoglu
本研究的目的是引入一种概率方法，以确定在中等规模的地震引起的泥石流风险评估的组成部分。Catakli集水区（土耳其里泽的Cayeli）被选为本研究的应用地点。调查分四个不同阶段进行：（i）评估条件因素，（ii）计算空间发生概率，（iii）计算时间发生概率，以及（iv）评估随之而来的风险。定义了风险立方体、风险平面、风险向量等基本概念。此外，为了在中尺度下对所研究的地形单元进行易损性分配，提出了一种新的更稳健、更客观的易损性分配公式。因此，考虑到集水区道路的具体类型，经济风险估计为3.6×106€-如果故障发生在包括风险要素的地形单元上，以及12.3×106€-如果风险发生在周围地形单元上。考虑到本研究中提出的技术，在中等规模进行的风险评估将提供大量的经济贡献，该地区的缓解规划研究。
The aim of the present study is to introduce a probabilistic approach to determine the components of the risk evaluation for rainfall-induced earthflows in medium scale. The Catakli catchment area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey) was selected as the application site of this study. The investigations were performed in four different stages: (i) evaluation of the conditioning factors, (ii) calculation of the probability of spatial occurrence, (iii) calculation of the probability of the temporal occurrence, and (iv) evaluation of the consequent risk. For the purpose, some basic concepts such as “Risk Cube”, “Risk Plane”, and “Risk Vector” were defined. Additionally, in order to assign the vulnerability to the terrain units being studied in medium scale, a new more robust and more objective equation was proposed. As a result, considering the concrete type of roads in the catchment area, the economic risks were estimated as 3.6×106€—in case the failures occur on the terrain units including element at risk, and 12.3×106€—in case the risks arise from surrounding terrain units. The risk assessments performed in medium scale considering the technique proposed in the present study will supply substantial economic contributions to the mitigation planning studies in the region.
Proc.National.Acod.S.82-16。
DOI：
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发表时间：
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期刊：
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作者：
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Ayalew, L;Yamagishi, H
通讯作者：
Yamagishi, H