THE MOZAMBIQUE FLOODS OF FEBRUARY 2000 IN CONTEXT

THE MOZAMBIQUE FLOODS OF FEBRUARY 2000 IN CONTEXT
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2000 年 2 月莫桑比克洪水的背景

DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Lucio
F. Lucio
中科院分区：
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Jury;F. Lucio

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摘要2000年2月，莫桑比克南部遭受了与两个热带气旋有关的严重洪灾。对夏季（12月至3月）热带气旋出现时洪水的历史背景、结构和预测进行了分析。观测表明，在过去的一百年里，当地的海面温度和最大日降雨量分别增加了1°C和100毫米/天以上。开发了一个统计模型，使洪水风险的预测提前几个月。
ABSTRACT In February 2000, southern Mozambique experienced severe floods related to the passage of two tropical cyclones. An analysis is conducted of the historical context, structure and prediction of flooding during the summer season (December to March) when tropical cyclones are present. Observations indicate that local sea surface temperatures and maximum daily rainfall have increased more than 1°C and 100mm/day respectively, over the past hundred years. A statistical model is developed to enable the prediction of flood risk many months in advance.