Identification of sites for road accident remedial work by Bayesian statistical methods: an example of uncertain inference
Identification of sites for road accident remedial work by Bayesian statistical methods: an example of uncertain inference
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DOI：
10.1016/s0965-9978(01)00037-0
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发表时间：
2001-10-01
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Wu, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Heydecker, BG;Wu, J
在许多情况下，通过实施低成本的工程措施，可以完成道路事故的补救工作。这些措施的目的是根据其种类、交通流量和设计，将适用这些措施的场址的安全性能恢复到现行水平。因此，这种方法适用于平均事故频率超过该地点标准值的地点。在本文中，我们提出了几个分析，提供定量但不确定的指示，哪些地点应该考虑这种处理，根据他们的事故记录。我们描述了在这方面提供信息的四种测量方法——事故数量，平均事故频率的估计，该估计超过标准值的数量，以及超出标准值的概率。我们通过将这些分析应用于优先控制道路交叉口的事故记录数据集来说明这些分析的使用，并比较使用不同措施的结果。(C) 2001 Civil-Comp Ltd和Elsevier Science Ltd版权所有。
Road accident remedial work can be effected in many cases by implementing low cost engineering measures. These are intended to restore the safety performance of sites to which they are applied to prevailing levels according to their kind, traffic flows and design. This approach is, therefore, appropriate to sites where the mean accident frequency exceeds a standard value for that site. In this paper, we present several analyses that provide quantitative but uncertain indications of which sites should be considered for this kind of treatment according to their accident record. We describe four measures that are informative in this respect - the count of accidents, an estimate of the mean accident frequency, the amount by which this estimate exceeds a standard value, and the probability that it does so. We illustrate the use of these analyses by applying them to a dataset of accident records of priority controlled road junctions and compare the results of using the different measures. (C) 2001 Civil-Comp Ltd and Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.