Instrumental temperature series in eastern and central China back to the nineteenth century
Instrumental temperature series in eastern and central China back to the nineteenth century
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DOI：
10.1002/jgrd.50615
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发表时间：
2013-08-16
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Tang, Guoli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cao, Lijuan;Zhao, Ping;Tang, Guoli
在这项研究中，我们把不同来源的资料集合在一起，运用质量控制、内插和均匀分布的方法，构建了19世纪末以来中国东部和中部18个站的月平均地表气温序列。对缺失值进行统计内插，并使用交叉验证来评估内插方法的准确性。结果表明，插补误差较小，插补结果在统计上是可以接受的。使用多种同质性方法和所有可用的元数据来评估时间序列的一致性，然后在必要时进行调整。在18个台站中检测到33个同质性断点，并将时间序列调整为数据序列的最新段。调整后的年平均气温在中国东北部和东南部的变化范围一般在1.0-4.2℃/100年之间，而在中国中部30度N附近的变化范围在-0.3-1.0℃/100年之间。自1951年以来，中国东部和中部的区域和年平均气温与中国地区更密集的台网的估计值吻合得很好，并显示出1909-2010年期间1.52摄氏度/100a的变暖趋势。
In this study, we bring together different source data sets and use quality control, interpolation, and homogeneity methods to construct a set of homogenized monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT) series for 18 stations in eastern and central China from the late nineteenth century. Missing values are statistically interpolated, and cross validation is used to assess the accuracy of the interpolation approaches. Results show that the errors of interpolation are small, and the interpolated values are statistically acceptable. Multiple homogeneity methods and all available metadata are used to assess the consistency of the time series and then to develop adjustments when necessary. Thirty-three homogeneity breakpoints are detected in the 18 stations, and the time series is adjusted to the latest segment of the data series. The adjusted annual mean SAT generally shows a range of trends of 1.0 degrees to 4.2 degrees C/100years in northeastern and southeastern China and a range of trends of -0.3 degrees to 1.0 degrees C/100years in central China near 30 degrees N. Compared to the adjusted time series, the unadjusted time series underestimates the warming trend during the past 100years. The regional and annual mean SAT over eastern and central China agrees well with estimates from a much denser station network over this region of China since 1951 and shows a warming trend of 1.52 degrees C/100years during 1909-2010.