Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan
Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan
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DOI：
10.1007/s00024-006-0130-2
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发表时间：
2006-12-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Turcotte, D. L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nanjo, K. Z.;Rundle, J. B.;Turcotte, D. L.
模式信息学（PI）技术可以用来检测地震的异常活动或平静，并进行地震预报。在这里，我们应用PI方法在日本的大地震的最佳预测，使用的数据目录，由日本气象厅。用PI方法对1995-2004年科比地区的大地震（震级≥ 5）进行了预测。直观检验和统计检验表明，优化后的PI方法相对于常用作标准零假设的地震烈度数据具有预测技巧。此外，我们在回顾性预测中发现，1995年科比地震（m = 7.2）的福尔斯落在一个地震异常区。测试预测算法的另一种方法是为大（m >= 5）地震事件创建未来潜在地图。这是用2000-2009年预测期的科比和东京地区来说明的。根据所得到的科比地图，我们指出了几个预测区域：1995年科比地震的震中区，和歌山地区，三重地区，爱知地区。东京预报图是在2004年10月23日新泻6.8级地震和5.0级以上的主要余震发生之前制作的
Pattern Informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make an earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is tested to forecast large (magnitude m >= 5) earthquakes spanning the time period 1995-2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show that the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic intensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find in a retrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a seismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm is to create a future potential map for large (m >= 5) earthquake events. This is illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period 2000-2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted areas: The epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the Mie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecast map was created prior to the occurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal aftershocks with 5.0